Pixar’s return to releasing movies in theaters has been a mixed bag lately. While some films like Lightyear and Elio didn’t perform well—Elio actually had the worst opening weekend in the studio’s history—Inside Out 2 was a huge hit, earning $1.6 billion globally. After Hoppers showed promising results earlier this year, becoming the biggest original animated movie debut since 2017, Pixar is hoping to repeat that success with a sequel. This weekend, the highly anticipated Toy Story 5 hits theaters, and it’s expected to be one of the biggest movies of the summer.
Variety reports that Toy Story 5 is expected to make between $145 and $150 million in its first weekend in the US and Canada. Some analysts even predict it could reach $160 to $175 million. If so, this would be the biggest opening weekend ever for a Toy Story movie. See the chart below to compare these estimates to the previous films in the series.
| Movie | Opening Weekend (Domestic) |
| Toy Story 5 | $145-150 million (projected) |
| Toy Story 4 | $120.9 million |
| Toy Story 3 | $110.3 million |
| Lightyear | $50.5 million |
| Toy Story 2 | $80.1 million (Thanksgiving 5-day) |
| Toy Story | $39 million (Thanksgiving 5-day) |
Can Toy Story 5 Exceed Box Office Projections?
Even the most conservative predictions for Toy Story 5‘s opening weekend revenue are higher than The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($131.7 million), which currently holds the record for the biggest opening of the year. While Mario‘s numbers are a bit different because it premiered on a Wednesday before Easter, earning $207.6 million in its first five days, Toy Story 5 is still expected to have a very strong debut. It makes you wonder if it could even beat the most optimistic forecasts – could it reach $175 million or more?
A big advantage for Toy Story 5 is the overwhelmingly positive buzz it’s receiving. Although it opened with the lowest critic score among all the main Toy Story films, it still boasts an impressive 94% on Rotten Tomatoes (based on 124 reviews). This highlights how consistently well-received the series has been over time. Critics agree that Toy Story 5 is worth seeing in cinemas, and combined with the existing fan base, this will likely lead to strong ticket sales this weekend.
With few major summer blockbusters released yet, Toy Story 5 is entering a favorable box office landscape. The Toy Story franchise has fans of all ages – from parents and children to adults who grew up with the original films in the ’90s. Other recent attempts at broad audience appeal, like The Mandalorian & Grogu and Masters of the Universe, didn’t perform as well as hoped. If audiences are craving a classic summer movie experience, Toy Story 5 is poised to be very successful.
Even if Toy Story 5 doesn’t quite reach expectations, the predicted success shows why Pixar is focusing on making sequels. While original Pixar films have had varying results lately – even Hoppers didn’t rank among their biggest hits – sequels are consistently breaking box office records. Pixar has several more in development, including Incredibles 3, Coco 2, and a new Monsters, Inc. movie, all of which are expected to do well. It would be wonderful if Pixar’s original stories returned to their former popularity (perhaps next year’s Gatto will help), but Disney is pleased with how well the sequels are performing.
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2026-06-17 22:42