After the Golden Globes some Oscar races already look tied up – but here’s why we shouldn’t rule out upsets

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It’s that time of year during awards season when it’s easy to start thinking we already know who’s going to win the major Oscars.

Timothée Chalamet and Jessie Buckley both had major wins at the Golden Globes, strengthening their chances of winning Best Actor and Best Actress. The awards for One Battle After Another and Hamnet in the Musical/Comedy and Drama film categories, respectively, have led many experts to believe the Best Picture race is now between those two movies.

However, is it smart to dismiss other possible candidates entirely? Looking at past results, it’s clear that the situation can still change significantly.

It’s easy to see why Timothée Chalamet and Florence Buckley are considered frontrunners to win an Academy Award. Chalamet’s biggest competitors have been Leonardo DiCaprio, for his performance in ‘One Battle After Another,’ and Ethan Hawke, for his work in ‘Blue Moon.’ Both actors are vying for the same award as Chalamet in the Comedy or Musical category.

This year has seen many impressive performances from leading actresses, like Jennifer Lawrence in ‘Die My Love’ and Amanda Seyfried in ‘The Testament of Ann Lee.’ However, Jessie Buckley’s deeply moving portrayal of Agnes in ‘Hamnet’ is currently considered the favorite to win, having already earned accolades from several critics’ groups.

Now that both Timothée Chalamet and Carey Mulligan have won Golden Globes, adding to their wins at the Critics Choice Awards last week, it seems very likely they’ll be strong contenders – and difficult to beat – at the Oscars in March.

The Golden Globes can offer some clues about who might win at the Oscars, but they’re not a reliable predictor. For example, last year’s big winner at the Globes, Emilia Perez, didn’t perform well at the Academy Awards, and even lost the Best International Feature Film award to the Brazilian film I’m Still Here.

Interestingly, while Anora didn’t win any awards at the Golden Globes, it went on to be a huge success at the Oscars, winning Best Picture and several other awards, including honors for Sean Baker as writer, director, and editor, and Best Actress for Mikey Madison.

Although controversies surrounding the film, including past comments made by star Karla Sofia Gascon, likely contributed to the struggles of Emilia Perez, it’s actually fairly common for the eventual Best Picture winner to be overlooked by the Golden Globes.

Even though Everything Everywhere All At Once won acting awards for Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan in 2024, it lost the Best Musical or Comedy prize to The Banshees of Inisherin. This followed a similar pattern the year before, when CODA – which later won Best Picture – didn’t win any awards at all.

Looking at the last five Best Picture winners, only Oppenheimer and Nomadland also won top film awards at the Golden Globes. Films like Parasite, The Shape of Water, and Birdman won the Oscar for Best Picture, even though they didn’t receive many awards from the Hollywood Foreign Press.

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The Golden Globes confirmed that the races for both supporting actor awards are very competitive. Teyana Taylor won for her work in ‘One Battle After Another,’ and Stellan Skarsgård was recognized for ‘Sentimental Value.’ This differs significantly from the Critics Choice Awards, where Amy Madigan (‘Weapons’) and Jacob Elordi (‘Frankenstein’) were the winners.

The Oscar race is still wide open, with strong contenders like Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Wunmi Mosaku, Benicio Del Toro, and Sean Penn all still in the running. This is a good thing – it’s more interesting to see a variety of actors recognized, rather than the same few winners every year.

So, the competition is still wide open, and it’ll be fascinating to watch how things develop over the next few weeks. However, Chalamet and Buckley are looking like strong contenders and will be hard to overcome.

Authors

Patrick CremonaSenior Film Writer

Patrick Cremona writes about movies for TopMob, covering new releases in theaters and on streaming platforms. He’s been with the site since October 2019, and during that time, he’s interviewed many famous actors and reviewed all kinds of films.

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2026-01-12 20:23