The matter of the CLARITY Act has a way of haunting a room like an uninvited guest. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee closed April without so much as scheduling a markup, as if the calendar itself were tired of arguments and decided to sip tea instead. The bill missed its appointed window, and the path ahead now threads through May, with fewer than four working weeks before Memorial Day drapes the nation in a polite silence and the recess begins to loom like a tired comedian after a long night.
a committee vote, a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, reconciliation between the Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, reconciliation with the House text from July 2025, and a presidential signature. Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn warns that if the markup slips past mid-May, the probability of passage in 2026 will decline sharply. TD Cowen takes a bleaker view, placing odds at one in three and citing CFTC staffing gaps, prediction market politics, and Iran-related crypto payment concerns as additional hurdles beyond the calendar. Polymarket currently prices passage at about 46%, a chill in the air compared with the 82% high reached earlier in the year. As crypto.news observed, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz remains publicly bullish, saying on a podcast this week that “this is going to get done” and that it “probably gets done in May.”
Why the April Slip Matters Even if May Works
The missed April target matters beyond the calendar. Crypto.news has tracked a familiar pattern: every failed deadline since 2025 has been followed by a glimmer of near-final optimism, then a fresh delay-whether from bank lobbying, stablecoin yield disputes, or this relentless calendar tug-of-war with the Fed chair process. The bill has now missed every formal or informal deadline since 2025. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reversed his January opposition and now supports the current text. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has shifted his forecast from April to May. The White House, Treasury, and both primary regulatory agencies publicly back the bill. The substance is settled. The only variable left is whether the Senate Banking Committee can move the bill before midterm politics swallow the floor whole.
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2026-04-27 23:03