Are We Sure Avengers: Doomsday Shouldn’t Be Scared of Dune 3?

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As a movie critic, I’ve been watching the build-up to December 18th, 2026 – a date fans have jokingly dubbed “Dunesday.” That’s the day both Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three are currently slated to hit theaters. Honestly, ever since the release dates were announced, everyone expected at least one of the studios to move things around. But after seeing the initial marketing for Doomsday and, more recently, the first trailer for Dune 3, it’s become pretty clear that both Marvel and Warner Bros. are digging in their heels and aren’t planning on backing down from that head-to-head collision.

Everyone assumed Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Three would be the big movie battle of 2026. I mean, it’s Dune, and people are really excited. But it’s going head-to-head with the Avengers’ return – a franchise that consistently makes almost two billion dollars per film, including the massive hit Avengers: Endgame. However, after seeing the teasers for Doomsday and, finally, the trailer for Dune 3, and seeing how both films are vying for prime IMAX real estate, I’m starting to think it’s Marvel who should be feeling the pressure from Dune, not the other way around.

Avengers: Doomsday Will Be Bigger Than Dune 3 – But Could Be The One That Suffers More

Let’s be realistic: it’s highly unlikely that Dune 3 will make more money than any of the Avengers movies. The lowest-grossing Avengers film, Age of Ultron, earned $1.4 billion – nearly twice the $715 million Dune: Part Two made. Even matching Age of Ultron‘s numbers would be a bit underwhelming for Marvel, considering how much bigger the Avengers franchise has become. They’re expecting even higher numbers, though the significant drop in earnings between Avatar: Fire & Ash and The Way of Water proves that Disney can’t assume success is guaranteed.

Although Dune 3 will likely perform well, I believe it will ultimately boost Doomsday‘s potential more than Doomsday will help Dune 3. The Dune films are becoming increasingly popular: the first film earned $410.6 million despite being released during the Covid-19 pandemic and simultaneously on HBO Max, while the sequel made $715 million and solidified the series’ reputation. Dune has become a major cinematic saga that people want to see on the big screen, and Dune 3 – which is being promoted as the epic conclusion – is expected to greatly benefit from this momentum.

This strong reputation sets it apart from the current state of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. While Dune 3 is being promoted as the concluding film in a potentially legendary trilogy, the MCU has faced considerable criticism since Endgame. Its five lowest-rated movies on Rotten Tomatoes and seven of its ten lowest-grossing films all came out in recent years (with the pandemic playing a partial role). The MCU isn’t invincible, and Dune 3 is poised to challenge its dominance.

Movie Year Box Office (Worldwide) Rotten Tomatoes (Critics) Rotten Tomatoes (Audiences)
Black Widow 2021 $379m 79% 91%
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings 2021 $432m 92% 98%
Eternals 2021 $402m 47% 77%
Spider-Man: No Way Home 2021 $1.9bn 93% 97%
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness 2022 $955m 73% 85%
Thor: Love and Thunder 2022 $760m 63% 76%
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 2022 $859m 84% 93%
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania 2023 $476m 46% 81%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 2023 $845m 82% 94%
The Marvels 2023 $206m 63% 79%
Deadpool & Wolverine 2024 $1.3bn 78% 94%
Captain America: Brave New World 2025 $415m 46% 75%
Thunderbolts* 2025 $382m 88% 93%
The Fantastic Four: First Steps 2025 $521m 86% 90%

The upcoming film Dune: Part Three, starring Timothée Chalamet – who has become a major movie star with films like Wonka and Marty Supreme – will be shown exclusively in IMAX theaters for the first three weeks of its release, covering the entire Christmas and New Year holiday period. More and more moviegoers are choosing premium formats like IMAX, seeing going to the movies as a special event. This is especially important for Dune, as IMAX screenings accounted for about 20% of the box office revenue for the previous film. However, this exclusivity could mean Marvel misses out on significant earnings – Avengers: Endgame earned over $200 million from IMAX alone.

Marvel fans will likely rush to see Doomsday to avoid spoilers, given its many returning characters and unexpected twists. While Dune: Part Three, based on Frank Herbert’s Dune Messiah, will also have changes, it doesn’t face the same spoiler pressure. However, Dune currently feels like the more broadly appealing and potentially rewatchable movie, making it a stronger choice if people can only see one, or want to experience it in different ways.

It’s easy to assume neither film will be a huge success, as they’re likely to appeal to the same viewers – unlike the distinct audiences for Barbie and Oppenheimer. However, Dune 3 doesn’t need to earn a billion dollars to be considered a hit, and that shouldn’t be the expectation. While Doomsday might have a small effect on its performance, it probably won’t deter many people from seeing it. In fact, Dune 3 might actually cause more people to delay seeing Doomsday.

The last two Avengers films each earned over $2 billion at the box office. The big question now is whether the new Dune film will achieve the same success, and whether it could do so even without a third Dune movie being made. While the first point is uncertain, it’s more likely the film will succeed if Dune 3 doesn’t happen. Even if it’s too late to change the release schedule, Doomsday risks underperforming. This could also affect other movies releasing around the same time – Jumanji 4 comes out the week before (and has historically done well), and Robert Eggers’ Werwulf a week after. Both of those films might struggle because they’re opening against such massive competition.

Ultimately, the real winners here are moviegoers – and Florence Pugh, who appears in both films. The fact that there’s even a discussion about which one is better highlights Denis Villeneuve’s success with Dune, and shows how much the Marvel Cinematic Universe has declined in popularity since Endgame.

Are you more hyped for Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday? Which one will you be seeing on December 18th? Share your thoughts in the comments and join the discussion in the ComicBook Forum!

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2026-03-21 15:42