Bitcoin Cycle Dies: The Money Machine Has Spoken 💥😂

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In the dim workshop of markets, where the pulse of money never rests, Arthur Hayes-BitMEX’s co‑founder-pronounces a verdict harsh enough to rust the gears: Bitcoin’s famous four‑year cycle is dead. Not slain by halving clocks or the bravado of new investors, but choked by the iron breath of money and the stubborn arithmetic of the world economy. The street hears the clatter of numbers and wonders who will feed the furnace today. 😅💸

In a blog titled “Long Live the King!”, he writes that as the fourth cycle’s anniversary nears, traders grasp at the old pattern and feign certainty about the end of the bull run. Yet he hammers the point with a sly smile: the four‑year rhythm worked in the past, but it is no longer applicable and will fail this time. The oracle of charts has shifted from chalk and wheel to the ledger and the venting of the money men. 🤨

Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s price dances to the tune of money, the great stream of dollars and yuan. The seasons of bull markets ended not by clocks but when liquidity tightened; as liquidity grows, the march continues. The crowd sways to the sight of more cash, and the beast keeps leaping as long as the river runs. 💧💹

Liquidity takes the driver’s seat

The current pace is no relic of old triumphs. The Treasury’s hands shine with a new sheen: roughly $2.5 trillion poured into markets via the Fed’s Reverse Repo program. The President’s “running it hot” mindset and easier policy cradle risk assets like Bitcoin. Plans to loosen bank rules and to widen lending sails are already underway, as if the ship needs more wind to surge forward. 🏦⚓

The Federal Reserve has begun trimming rates again, even with prices still high. Traders anticipate another cut in October, perhaps one more in December. Put simply, cheaper money could keep feeding Bitcoin’s ascent, like a flame fed by an unending supply of oil. 🪙🔥

Hayes notes that while China is less aggressive with stimulus this time, its aim to end deflation suggests liquidity will not be squeezed away. “Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing,” Hayes quips with a grin that knows the joke is on the crowd, “They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.” The crowd nods, half in awe, half in exasperation. 🤡💬

Bitcoin trades around $122,036 with daily volume surpassing $61 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. But CryptoQuant offers a different mood: Binance’s open interest has fallen 7.9% since October 6 to $13.88 billion. A sign, perhaps, that traders are stepping off the ledge, taking profits after a march of gains. The theater remains loud, the seats still warm, yet the hands are fewer on the lever. 🎭💸

Hayes believes the future now moves with the flow of global money rather than the old four‑year rhythm. As long as central banks keep pumping cash into the system, Bitcoin’s ascent could keep rolling, like a locomotive that refuses to stop for a tea break. The city watches, eyes bright with the glow of screens, and asks for more. 🚂💰

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2025-10-09 12:53