Bitcoin Price Near Bottom? Half of Supply Turns Red, K33 Says Yes

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Is <a href="https://jpygbp.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> price near a bottom as half of supply turns red? K33 says yes

Recent price drops have caused over half of all Bitcoins in circulation to now be worth less than what they were originally purchased for, according to K33 Research.

Summary

  • More than half of Bitcoin supply now sits underwater after price briefly slipped below $60,000.
  • Past cycles often bottomed within weeks, though Bitcoin sometimes recorded one final deeper decline afterward.
  • Record ETP outflows and extreme fear pressure Bitcoin, while lower leverage reduces liquidation-driven market risk.

More than 10 million BTC last moved above current prices after Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000.

The move also took Bitcoin under its 200-week moving average. K33 views the area near $60,000 as a possible cycle low, but its historical data leaves room for another decline.

Half of Bitcoin supply moves underwater

The share of supply trading at a loss rose from about 30% one month ago to more than 50%. K33 said this level has appeared near every major Bitcoin bear-market bottom.

Bitcoin has historically bottomed out around 31 days after its Relative Strength Index (RSI) first crosses above the 50% mark, happening in 2011, 2018, and 2022.

According to Vetle Lunde, this approach might lead to better returns over time than experiencing further losses, though it’s not a certainty.

I’ve been studying past Bitcoin cycles, and 2014 was a bit of an outlier. It took over three months to hit its lowest point, and even after Bitcoin had already dropped 50%, it kept falling – another 46%, in fact. This just reminds me that those ‘bottom’ signals aren’t always reliable and can sometimes come surprisingly early.

Bitcoin retests its 200-week average

During the June price drop, Bitcoin’s value fell briefly to 4.29% below its 200-week moving average. This same level has historically marked the bottom of previous bear markets before prices recovered.

The current drawdown has reached about 53% over roughly eight months. Previous major declines lasted about one year and erased between 76% and 85%, making the present correction shorter and shallower.

K33 predicts the lowest point in this market cycle will likely be around $60,000. However, their report advises against rushing in and recommends avoiding borrowed money, as previous market lows have often been followed by another drop in price before a rebound.

ETP outflows keep selling pressure elevated

As an analyst, I’ve been tracking significant outflows from global Bitcoin Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) recently. Over the past month, from May 7th to June 8th, we saw a total of 22,840 Bitcoin leave these products. This translates to an average of 4,108 BTC exiting daily, which is almost ten times the amount of new Bitcoin created each day.

Bitcoin outflows over the past four weeks reached 85,643 BTC, the highest amount K33 has ever recorded. Globally, these products now hold around 1.47 million BTC, which is the lowest level since June 2025.

Recent price drops have caused Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) to reach its lowest point since November 2018. Investor sentiment also plummeted, with the Fear & Greed Index briefly hitting 8 before rebounding slightly to 10, indicating continued extreme fear in the market.

Lower leverage reduces forced-selling risk

Open interest in Bitcoin futures on the CME exchange dropped to its lowest level in two and a half years, indicating that large traders are decreasing their positions. At the same time, the premium for these futures contracts decreased, suggesting weak demand for buying Bitcoin with borrowed money.

Funding rates and the amount of open interest have decreased from their recent peaks. According to K33 Research, this lowers the chance of a sudden price drop caused by liquidations. However, low demand for Bitcoin itself and continued outflows from exchange-traded products are still weighing on the market.

As previously reported, capital rotation toward the SpaceX IPO and large technology stocks may also be weighing on Bitcoin. Still, Strategy bought 1,550 BTC during the decline, offering one counterpoint to the broader risk-off trend.

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2026-06-10 15:38