Markets
What to know:
- The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, core PCE, likely increased to 2.9% in September, exceeding the 2% target for the 55th consecutive month.
- Despite inflation concerns, volatility indices remain stable, with bitcoin‘s implied volatility index showing no major disruptions.
- Analysts suggest that a softer inflation report could lower the 10-year Treasury yield and support a rebound in cryptocurrencies.
The Fed’s favorite game: “Guess the Inflation Number”! Spoiler: it’s still way above 2%, because apparently, 55 months of missing the target is just… a warm-up. 🤢
Core PCE rose 2.9% year-on-year in September, which is less impressive than my ability to overspend on avocado toast. FactSet’s data suggests this sticky inflation will embolden the Fed hawks, who are basically crypto’s least favorite people. 🦅
Volatility indices? Please. They’re as exciting as a group chat where everyone’s asleep. Bitcoin’s BVIV is chilling at 36%, which means we’re looking at a 1.88% price swing-because nothing says “thrill ride” like a leisurely stroll in crypto-land. 😴
Low volatility expectations? Blame the Fed’s rate cut, which is as inevitable as tax season. CME’s FedWatch tool is just there for show, like a waiter taking an order you’ve already decided on. 🕰️
If the inflation report is softer than a vegan mattress, the 10-year Treasury yield might dip below 4%, and suddenly BTC is out of its two-day cage like it’s escaping a tiny closet. 🪑
Iliya Kalchev from Nexo Dispatch says a soft report would be “the easing narrative supporting crypto’s rebound.” Translation: If the numbers are nice, we might not crash today. Fingers crossed, I guess. 🤞
ING, the bear market’s favorite cheerleader, warns the yield drop could be short-lived. Because nothing says “confidence” like a one-night stand with optimism. 💔
The data could have similar impact on altcoins. Ether’s volatility? 57.23%-because why have a 3% swing when you can have a 4.3% rollercoaster with XRP? Solana’s at 3.86%, so if you thought your dating life was chaotic, wait till you see the crypto market. 🤡
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End of Thought (18.92s)
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2025-12-05 07:06