Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio: A Cyclical Bottom or Just a Fancy Slang? 🚀

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Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin‘s MVRV ratio dropping below its 365-day average signals a local bottom, historically preceding big price rallies. A marvel of modern finance, isn’t it? 🤷‍♂️

  • Capital rotation from gold could fuel the Bitcoin rebound, according to analysts. Ah, the eternal dance of assets. 🌀

Bitcoin (BTC) may be poised for a sustained recovery in the coming weeks, as a key valuation metric sends a bullish signal. The BTC market might be forming a “cyclical bottom,” according to crypto analysts. A term so vague, it could mean anything. 🤔

Bitcoin’s MVRV metric signals “local bottom”

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, an indicator that measures whether the asset is overvalued, recently slipped below its 365-day moving average, indicating that BTC could be at a local bottom, according to CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets. A local bottom? How pedestrian. 🤭

The “MVRV ratio currently stands near 1.9, slightly below its 365-day moving average,” the analyst said in a QuickTake analysis on Monday, adding:

“Historically, each time the ratio dropped below the 365 SMA, it has marked a buying opportunity and a local bottom signal.”

The previous times this happened were in mid-2021, June 2022 and early 2024, preceding 135%, 100% and 196% rallies in BTC price, respectively. A pattern so consistent, it’s almost suspicious. 🤡

This consistent pattern suggests that Bitcoin is once again “entering an undervalued phase, where long-term holders typically begin accumulating,” the analyst wrote. A phase? How theatrical. 🎭

With an 18% BTC price drop to $103,530 on Friday from $126,000 all-time high, the MVRV declined, “reflecting reduced speculative excess and growing long-term confidence,” the analyst said, adding:

“If this metric begins to turn upward from current levels, it could confirm that the recent sell-off was a cyclical bottom formation, supporting a renewed bullish phase into Q4.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin price could embark on a prolonged recovery, with analysts projecting short-term targets around $115,000 and even as high as $190,000 if the last leg of the bull run unfolds. A bull run? How predictable. 🐂

Capital rotation from gold to boost BTC price

Data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView revealed that gold is down 8.5% from its all-time high of $4,380 reached on Monday. A fall so dramatic, it’s practically a tragedy. 🎭

That’s a “pretty harsh move on gold,” MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said in a Tuesday X post. A harsh move? How unbecoming. 🤭

If this continues, it would mean gold has “peaked for the moment,” a sign that “the rotation” into Bitcoin and altcoins may be starting, van de Poppe wrote. A rotation? How quaint. 🌀

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September is expected to be released on Friday, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A report so anticipated, it’s practically a holiday. 🎉

“A soft CPI print should trigger the fuel for potential rate cuts and the end of the government shutdown,” the analyst said, adding:

“Bitcoin to start running as risk-on appetite comes back into play.”

Meanwhile, Bitwise analysts suggest that a 5% shift from gold to Bitcoin could drive the price of Bitcoin to $240,000. A shift? How modest. 🤷‍♀️

Bitwise says a 5% capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin could send BTC to $242,391 👀

– Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 21, 2025

As CryptoMoon reported, gold’s ongoing pullback may trigger Bitcoin’s rebound, with technical analysis projecting a BTC price rally to $150,000-$165,000 by year’s end. A rally? How thrilling. 🎉

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2025-10-22 15:16