Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Will It Crash to $38K or Moon to $90K?

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Well, bless my stars and stripes, if it ain’t the wild bronco of the financial world, Bitcoin, bucking and kicking just shy of a resistance zone that’s been watched closer than a cat watches a canary since February. The short-term rally’s brought it back to this level, but it’s stuck like a mule in the mud, can’t break through convincingly. Weekend resistance, they say, sits between $80,600 and $82,000, while support’s lounging between $79,640 and $76,500. Mighty specific, ain’t it?

If this critter decides to gallop higher, the immediate targets are $84,300 to close that pesky CME gap, then $87,500 and $90,600, where the real fence-sitters are waiting. But don’t hold your breath-this horse might just be circling the barn.

Why the Wiseacres Ain’t Calling a Bottom Yet

Now, despite this here bounce, the so-called experts say there’s no solid proof a meaningful low’s formed. They’ve got three shiny indicators to back their doom and gloom.

First off, Bitcoin hasn’t broken below the long-term holder realized price on that fancy onchain cost basis model. In every bear market before this, that level got touched, if not outright trampled, before a major low showed up. But this time? Nada. Zip. Zero.

Second, the current drawdown from the all-time high’s sitting at a measly 53 to 54%. Past bear markets? Oh, they were real bruisers, with drawdowns of 60 to 84% before they called it quits. This correction’s about as deep as a puddle after a light rain.

Third, them Elliott Wave folks reckon this move’s just a corrective B-wave bounce in a bigger bearish rodeo. A C-wave decline’s still lurking, ready to pounce later this year. Yeehaw.

The $38K to $39K Ghost Town

If this bearish pattern plays out like a bad melodrama, the next stop’s between $38,000 and $39,000. That’s a 70% drawdown from the all-time high, lining up with them Fibonacci retracement zones the analysts love to chatter about. But hold your horses-this ain’t a done deal yet. A B-wave top’s gotta form first before the C-wave can strut its stuff.

What’d It Take to Turn This Bull Loose?

For this bearish tale to get tossed in the trash, Bitcoin’s gotta charge past $90,000, specifically that 138% Fibonacci extension level. That’d confirm a third wave’s in the works and open the gate to $94,500 and beyond. Till then, this rally’s just a corrective hiccup in a broader bearish ballad.

Time cycle analysis-whatever that means-points to a market top forming in the May to June window, with a potential low around October if the stars align. But hey, in the world of Bitcoin, the only sure thing is uncertainty. So grab your popcorn, folks, and enjoy the show.

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2026-05-11 07:36