As an analyst, I’m watching Coinbase stock closely, and it looks like we might finally see a legitimate breakout attempt in 2026. The stock closed at $195.90 yesterday, up over 6%, continuing a positive trend that started on April 10th. This move seems to be fueled by CEO Brian Armstrong changing his stance on the CLARITY Act, coupled with news that the Senate Banking Committee is planning to review the bill later this month.
Things are looking up for crypto! We finally broke back above that $179 level – the 20-day moving average – which is a good sign. Plus, a key indicator, the MACD, just turned positive for the first time in a while, and we’re seeing the first higher high on the daily chart since March. I’m hearing rumors that the US might pass some crypto legislation by late April, especially regarding stablecoins, and that’s really boosting confidence. All this has got me, and a lot of other investors, feeling optimistic about the market right now.
The Senate Banking Committee released its schedule for April 20th, and the CLARITY Act wasn’t included. The only item on the agenda is a hearing next Tuesday for potential Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. While the committee is postponing the review of the CLARITY Act to the week of April 27th or early May, it hasn’t been abandoned. Senator Tim Scott’s team is still refining the bill, and representatives from Coinbase, Ripple, and a White House crypto advisor all indicated on Tuesday that they were making progress.
The fate of Coinbase stock hinges on one key difference: will a potential price increase be simply delayed, or completely cancelled? The recent trading suggests investors think it will only be a delay. If the price doesn’t go up, the optimistic projections for 2026 won’t come true.
The next objective on the chart is clear: $220.
The $245 level is key – it’s where previous attempts to recover stalled and represents the high point from March. If the price breaks above this level with strong trading volume, it suggests a genuine shift in the trend and could lead to a rise towards $245, potentially revisiting the $260 range from January. However, if it fails to break through, the price is likely to remain stuck in its current downward pattern, with support around $140 acting as a likely low point.
This stock has fallen 23% this year and its price is currently driven more by expectations of favorable policy changes than by its underlying financial performance. Recent earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 were significantly below expectations, missing by 365% and revenue was slightly off by 2.5%. Positive movement in the stock price is now happening, largely due to potential progress on the CLARITY Act. However, whether this positive trend continues will depend on whether the Act is approved before Memorial Day.
The Three Sessions That Built the Move
Okay, so the price didn’t jump right away when Armstrong changed his mind. Instead, it took off over the next three trading days – that’s when we finally saw the rally happen. It wasn’t immediate, but it definitely came after his announcement.
On Friday, April 10th, despite a shift in Armstrong’s position, the market showed little reaction. COIN stock closed down around $169 following the CEO’s public support of the CLARITY Act. Because the announcement came right before the weekend and the Senate was not in session, traders had no immediate basis for making moves. While the news shaped the conversation, it didn’t lead to any significant trading activity.
The Senate reconvened on Monday, April 13th, and initial trading activity in COIN began. The stock saw gains, closing around $175, but trading volume was relatively low. This early activity appeared to be investors taking initial positions rather than a strong indication of long-term confidence.
On April 14th, news that the Senate Banking Committee planned to review the CLARITY Act later in April caused Coinbase stock to rise about 5%, closing around $185. The stock encountered some resistance at its 20-day moving average, but this trading session marked a shift to an upward trend.
As a researcher following COIN, Wednesday, April 15th, was a significant day. The stock opened at $185.66 and climbed to a high of $196.46 before closing at $195.90 – a strong 6.23% increase, the biggest single-day jump we’ve seen since early March. Technically, we broke above the 20-day Simple Moving Average, the MACD indicator turned positive, and the daily chart confirmed a higher high – a promising sign after a period of consolidation.
The Technical Setup: Breakout Structure Is Building
Coinbase (COIN) closed at $195.90 on Wednesday, breaking through a previous high from April 7th. This creates a new pattern of rising prices. Looking back, after a dip in January that bottomed out around $140 in early February, the stock began to recover, establishing higher lows at $155 in late March and again at $160 in early April.
The moving average ribbon provides a quick snapshot of the price trend: the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is at $179, the 50-day SMA is at $211, and the 200-day SMA is at $274. For the price to continue rising, it needs to surpass each of these levels one by one. It’s already broken through the 20-day SMA, and now the 50-day SMA is the next hurdle.
What Wednesday’s candle did accomplish:
- Reclaimed the 20-SMA at $179 on above-average volume, the first clean break since late March
- Flipped the MACD bullish for the first time in the current leg, with the histogram crossing from negative to +1.93
- Printed a closing session high of $196.46, taking out the April 7 swing high near $175 and establishing the first higher-high on the daily chart since March
What comes next:
- Reclaim the 50-SMA at $211
- The March swing high at $220 is breakout confirmation
- The MACD signal line at -2.16 needs to cross above zero to confirm momentum
The foundation has been established and a potential upward move is beginning. We’re looking for confirmation above $211, and then $220, to signal the breakout is valid.
The Scenarios: Three Paths From $195
Bull case — CLARITY clears the April 27 week, COIN reclaims $220:
If the Senate Banking Committee schedules a review of the bill for April 27th or the first week of May and includes terms Coinbase finds acceptable regarding stablecoin yields, and if the bill then passes a vote by the end of May as predicted by Ripple’s Brad Garlinghouse, the major regulatory uncertainty currently affecting Coinbase’s future prospects would be resolved.
If the bill passes through committee without significant changes that would harm Coinbase’s revenue from its Base platform and staking services, the stock could see a strong rally. Initially, it might climb to around $211, then potentially reach $220. Breaking above $220 could open the door for further gains, possibly up to $245–$260 – the price level where the recent decline began. This scenario is contingent on a favorable outcome for the bill and a reduction in the number of shares being shorted.
Base case — Markup slips to May, range-bound grind between $175 and $210:
The Senate Banking Committee is now four deadlines past due on this bill. Chairman Tim Scott, who manages the committee’s schedule, hasn’t indicated any rush to move it forward.
If the approval of new rules is delayed until mid-May or beyond, or if the final language regarding stablecoin yields favors banks over the crypto industry, Coinbase (COIN) will likely lack positive catalysts in the near future. This could cause the stock to trade sideways, between $175 and $210, until the first quarter of 2026 earnings report in early May. In this situation, the 20-day simple moving average will be a key indicator: if the stock price stays above it, buyers will likely maintain control; if it falls below, the stock could drop back to its April low of $160.
Bear case — Memorial Day deadline missed, earnings disappoint, retest of $140:
Coinbase experienced a significant loss last quarter, with earnings far below expectations. Revenue also decreased by over 22% compared to the same time last year. Currently, the stock price seems to be driven by optimistic speculation rather than strong financial performance, and that optimism is risky given the company’s ongoing losses.
Senator Bernie Moreno has cautioned that if the bill isn’t brought to a vote in the Senate by May, it will likely be delayed until 2027. This is because there are only about 18 weeks left in the Senate’s schedule before they break for the October midterm recess, according to Galaxy Research.
If the CLARITY Act isn’t passed by Memorial Day and first-quarter 2026 earnings are weak, the stock price could fall to around $140 – a 28% drop from its current value. This would be confirmed by specific technical indicators, but the overall trend – with consistently decreasing highs and lows and downward-sloping moving averages – already suggests this is likely. This isn’t a remote possibility; it’s the most probable outcome if the expected positive developments don’t happen.
The Levels That Matter
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| $220 | March swing high — breakout confirmation above here |
| $211 | 50-SMA — first major resistance, where the last two rallies failed |
| $200 | Psychological round number — intraday pivot |
| $195.90 | Current price |
| $179 | 20-SMA — near-term support, must hold on any pullback |
| $165 | April consolidation floor |
| $140 | February low — bear case target |
What to Watch This Week
Three things decide whether Wednesday’s move holds:
As a crypto investor, I’m watching the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule closely, especially what happens after the Fed chair nomination hearing later this month. The biggest clue to what’s coming next is when they release the updated text regarding stablecoin yields. It’s all about that language! Basically, if they allow stablecoins to offer rewards based on activity, companies like Coinbase can keep making money as they are now. But if they restrict those rewards, it could cost the industry around $1.35 billion – a huge hit to profits.
Next, let’s look at Bitcoin. Over the past 90 days, COIN has generally moved in the same direction as Bitcoin, with a correlation of 0.45. If Bitcoin breaks through the $80,000 level and continues to rise, COIN is likely to follow and exceed $200 due to market momentum. However, if Bitcoin’s price declines, positive news about Clarity won’t be enough to prevent COIN’s stock from falling as well.
Let’s look at short interest data. The report coming out on April 24th will tell us if short sellers bought back their shares during the recent price increase. If they did, it means the momentum behind the rally is fading and it will need new buyers to keep going. But if short sellers held onto their positions, it suggests another price surge is still possible.
The Bottom Line
Coinbase stock is currently showing a promising trading opportunity, arguably the clearest one this year. Here’s the strategy: buy if the price stays above $200, and add more if it rises above $211. Initial price targets are $220 and $245. This trade is considered invalid if the daily closing price falls below $179. The potential reward is about twice the risk if aiming for $220, with even better potential if positive news from the Senate happens by Memorial Day, potentially pushing the stock towards $245–$260. The risk is calculated at $195.
There’s genuine momentum building now. Representative Armstrong changing his stance eliminated the main reason the CLARITY Act failed to pass in 2026 on two previous occasions. The White House is actively pushing for its approval, and the agreement on yield rates is still in place. There’s a lot of investor interest, as shown by high short selling activity. While the Senate’s schedule is a bit delayed, there’s still time to vote on the bill through late April and early May.
There are several clear risks to consider. If the proposed legislation isn’t approved before Memorial Day, it could be delayed until 2027 or beyond due to election-year politics. If the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings show a more significant decline than previously indicated, the reasons for optimism will be undermined by fundamental issues. And if Bitcoin’s price falls, COIN’s stock, which tends to move with Bitcoin (with a correlation of 0.45), will likely decrease as well, regardless of what happens in Washington.
These developments don’t alter the overall situation—they actually make it clearer. The market’s reaction on Wednesday reflected a growing expectation of a price reaching $220, an expectation that wasn’t present just two weeks prior.
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2026-04-16 09:46