Ethereum’s Big Comeback: Is This Deja Vu or Just Another Dip?

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Hold on to your wallets, folks! Ethereum‘s price just fell about 7% in the past 24 hours and nearly 24% over the month. Traders are split-some are sharpening their buying fingers, while others are looking for a cushion to brace for the inevitable crash. But here’s the kicker: there’s a certain on-chain metric showing a setup that looks eerily like June. You know, the June that kicked off a 116% Ethereum rally. But-AND IT’S A BIG BUT-before we get there, expect a good ol’ fashioned drop!

The big question: Are we about to do a repeat performance of June? Or will this be a rerun of a nightmare?

Is History About to Repeat Itself? The June-Like Reset

To fully appreciate the drama unfolding, let’s dive into NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss). It’s a fancy term for a metric that measures how much profit or loss holders are sitting on without pulling the trigger on selling. When NUPL dives into the deep end, it’s a sign that weak hands are being flushed out. A good ol’ cleansing before the next trend shift.

Back in June, we had front-row seats to the same show.

Here’s the plotline:

  • On June 5, NUPL was chilling at 0.24. A lot of people thought, “Hey, this could be the bottom!” Spoiler: They were wrong.
  • Ethereum went on a weak rally to $2,814 by June 10. A “relief rally” that felt more like a yawn.
  • But hold onto your hats! From June 10 to June 22, NUPL plummeted to 0.17, and ETH dropped to $2,230. Now THAT was the bottom. A solid 20.7% dip.
  • And THEN… drumroll, please… ETH surged 116%, from $2,230 to a jaw-dropping $4,829 over the next two months.

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Fast forward to now: The plot thickens!

On November 14, NUPL once again sat at 0.24, the same as June 5. Ethereum bounced to $3,115… but this move was about as impressive as a wet towel. Exactly like that meh bounce from June 10.

Fast forward (again) and guess what? More selling. ETH is back on the decline. And if NUPL follows its June path and drops to around 0.17… we could see the price slip to $2,470, according to our beloved 20.7% correction model. And as of November 16, NUPL is already sliding towards 0.21. So buckle up, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride!

Exchange Activity: A Sign of Weakness (Oh Joy!)

Look at this: The exchange behavior metric is showing some seriously sketchy signs. The outflow of ETH was around 1.14 million on November 6. But by November 17, it dropped to just 574,000. That’s a 50% reduction!

When ETH starts leaving exchanges at this pace, it’s usually a sign that holders are trying to dump. Not a great sign, eh?

So here we are. The NUPL pattern and exchange activity are screaming: Ethereum might need a real cleaning before it can rise from the ashes.

Chart Levels: The Sweet Spot of Pain and Potential

ETH is still playing around in a downward channel that kicked off in early October. And guess what? The bearish vibes are still strong. The next crucial support? A lovely $2,920. If that breaks, the next support zone is $2,466. Sound familiar? Yep, that’s right! It matches the price predicted by the NUPL reset calculation. That would be a generous 17% dip from where we are now.

And here’s the real kicker:

  • The June reset model predicts $2,470.
  • The current chart structure? Oh look, $2,466.

When two completely different methods agree on a price, you know it’s time to pay attention. Trust us, this could be your moment!

So what happens next? A bounce from $2,466 wouldn’t surprise anyone. And if Ethereum goes on another rally like it did after June 22? Well, that wouldn’t shock us either. But until Ethereum pushes past higher levels, expect one last plunge to test the waters.

If ETH can manage to hold $2,920 and rebound, things might get a bit rosier. But as of right now, the trend still suggests one final flush before we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. And if Ethereum suddenly takes off and hits $3,655 in the short term? Forget this whole theory. But let’s be honest, that’s probably just a “relief” bounce like June 5.

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2025-11-18 14:32