Geopolitics Could Turn Bitcoin Into Everyday Money: $1M?

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Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, declares that the current geopolitical samba could coax bitcoin out of its comfy digital ivory tower and into the streets as a proper, pocketable currency. If fortune smiles and the planets stop throwing their toys out of the pram, it might even strut up to the $1 million mark within the next decade. Of course, he concedes this would be an “out-of-the-money call option”-which is fancy speak for a lottery ticket bought in a world where the vending machine sometimes eats your dream.

Key Takeaways:

  • Iran’s proposal to toll oil with a $1 bitcoin fee bypasses weaponized fiat, nudging the financial rails toward something apolitical next door to a sensible notion of money.
  • Bitwise CIO Hougan claims the $20M hypothetical daily toll proves bitcoin could soon straddle both gold and currency, like a dragon in a suit trying not to spill tea on the carpet.
  • If bitcoin grabs this dual role, Hougan suggests updating his $1M, 17% market-share target for BTC to something delightfully audacious, possibly written in larger, bolder ink.

Bitwise: Bitcoin Might Be Adopted As Currency Amidst Geopolitical Chaos

The recent squabbles over using bitcoin as a means of paying for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz have thrust the cryptocurrency into the geopolitical drawing room, where folks debate its use with all the drama of a wizard with a microbrew and a suspiciously sharp hat.

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, believes that adding this functionality to bitcoin’s already extended “digital gold” store-of-value feature during times of geopolitical chaos might push its price to heights that make meteors jealous.

On social media, Hougan stressed that this new possibility of bitcoin becoming a “traditional currency,” though unlikely, isn’t as fantastical as it once sounded. The Iran toll on oil, raking in about $20 million a day, is touted as evidence that the financial world might be bending toward a more apolitical railscape.

He stressed that this showed a “reality that transcends the current conflict: In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative.”

In this regard, Hougan likened this bet to an out-of-the-money call option, explaining that during the Iran conflict, two conditions for this to happen appeared: An increased probability of bitcoin being used in a currency-like manner and a rise in the volatility of the global monetary order.

Previously, he had estimated that bitcoin could reach up to $1 million by capturing 17% of the $38 trillion store-of-value market over the next decade. But now, as bitcoin has the opportunity to expand its uses beyond this already established narrative, the goal could be set even higher.

“If bitcoin starts to take on a dual role as both a store of value (like gold) and an actual currency (like the dollar), we may need to revise our targets higher,” Hougan concluded.

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2026-04-16 23:27