No, The Mandalorian & Grogu’s Box Office Doesn’t Mean Star Wars Is Dead (The Real Test Is Next Year)

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While The Mandalorian & Grogu isn’t performing as strongly at the box office as a typical new Star Wars movie, it’s too early to say the franchise is in trouble. There was a lot of discussion about how well the film would do, and for good reason – it’s the first Star Wars theatrical release in seven years, following a period dominated by streaming services. Many hoped it would be a major success and demonstrate the franchise still has strong appeal.

Early box office numbers don’t really confirm those claims. The Mandalorian and Grogu came in third place during its second weekend, behind two small, independent horror films, Backrooms and Obsession. It also experienced a significant 69% drop in ticket sales – the biggest drop ever for a Star Wars movie. This has sparked a lot of discussion and strong opinions, with many quickly declaring the film a failure, predicting the end of Star Wars in theaters, and even suggesting that the era of big franchises is over. However, the situation is more nuanced than that.

The Mandalorian & Grogu’s Box Office Isn’t Great, But It’s Not A Disaster Either

While The Mandalorian and Grogu isn’t a box office failure, it hasn’t been a huge success either. Considering it’s a Star Wars film, its $247 million worldwide earnings after two weeks are lower than expected. For comparison, The Force Awakens remains the highest-grossing domestic film of all time, earning $936 million, and the original Star Wars is still among the top five highest-grossing movies ever when adjusted for inflation. This new film hasn’t reached those levels.

Actually, The Mandalorian and Grogu didn’t need to match the success of previous Star Wars films. It could have been released as Season 4 of The Mandalorian on Disney+ and still be considered a win, even without making much money in theaters. Because of this, the film isn’t the failure some people are hoping for. It’s already done well, especially with its $167 million opening weekend worldwide – a strong start that’s particularly valuable to Disney, as they’ll receive a larger share of those initial earnings than they will later on.

The movie’s box office results aren’t surprising, and not because the film is poorly made. It’s been three years since the last season of the TV show, a season that many fans didn’t love, and nearly five years since the show was at its most popular after its first two seasons. Plus, Disney has had mixed success with releasing shows as theatrical films. It’s expected to earn more than The Marvels ($206 million) but likely less than Captain America: Brave New World ($415 million), which benefited from the established Captain America brand, despite being a new take on the character.

It seems unlikely Disney didn’t anticipate the financial challenges with this movie. While initial estimates – factoring in its $165 million production budget and $130 million marketing costs – suggested it needed to earn over $500 million to be profitable, that calculation is usually too simple. The film will generate revenue from sources beyond ticket sales, like merchandise, video-on-demand, streaming, theme park attractions, and licensing. Merchandise alone could make it a success for Disney, and importantly, these sales don’t rely on the film being shown in theaters.

This film feels like Disney is cautiously testing the waters, preparing for a larger Star Wars push in 2027 and taking advantage of some extra income. It’s reasonable to wonder if this was the best movie to start with, or if the timing was right, but Disney will likely be satisfied with how the film performs overall. It’s not a good indicator of Star Wars’ future as a theatrical franchise, given its strong connection to characters and stories developed for streaming. Fortunately, there’s another film coming that will provide a better test of its potential.

Starfighter Is The Real Test Of Star Wars’ Box Office Appeal

2027 is set to be a major year for Star Wars, and the success of The Mandalorian & Grogu is adding to the excitement. We can expect new seasons of Ahsoka and likely Maul – Shadow Lord on streaming platforms. However, the biggest news will be in cinemas, starting with a re-release of the original Star Wars movie, also known as A New Hope – something fans have been requesting for years.

Disney is yielding to fan demand, and that’s likely to be very successful. The recent re-release of Revenge of the Sith earned over $50 million, proving people still want to see Star Wars films in theaters. The upcoming re-release of A New Hope is expected to perform even better, considering the film’s importance, its lasting impact, and the celebration of its 50th anniversary.

Next, we’ll discuss Star Wars: Starfighter, directed by Shawn Levy and starring Ryan Gosling. This film will introduce fresh characters and a new story set five years after The Rise of Skywalker, while also incorporating classic Star Wars elements like lightsaber battles. The Mandalorian and Grogu was the first Star Wars movie without lightsabers, so their return in Starfighter will likely be a key part of the film’s promotion.

Levy’s past work has been inconsistent, but he’s proven he can deliver huge, popular movies – like the upcoming Deadpool & Wolverine. Ryan Gosling is currently at the peak of his career, following the success of Project Hail Mary. With the 50th anniversary of Star Wars happening around the same time, this film is expected to be a major, large-scale cinematic event, something The Mandalorian and Grogu never quite achieved.

Unlike The Mandalorian, Starfighter had everything going for it and really should succeed. It was clearly made to be a blockbuster, quickly put into production because the script was ready and Disney had high expectations. If it doesn’t perform well, it would signal serious problems for the future of Star Wars, forcing Disney to re-evaluate what audiences want and how to move forward. However, it’s too early to worry about that – we won’t know for sure for another year.

Star Wars: Starfighter releases on May 27th, 2027.

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2026-06-01 22:13