Polymarket Braces for US Comeback – Will They Bet on the Future or Just the Weather?

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In a move that could only be described as both audacious and mildly confusing, prediction platform Polymarket has announced it might start offering its crystal-ball gazing services in the United States sometime around the end of the current calendar year – yes, that elusive period known for holiday shopping and questionable resolutions.

Sources close to the matter-mostly people with coffee in their mugs-say that Polymarket is planning to launch a limited range of trades for US residents before the calendar flips to December. The emphasis? Sports betting. Because nothing says 2023 quite like trying to predict if your favorite team will win or just manage to keep it together.

This regulatory rollercoaster started about two months ago, when the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) threw a no-action letter at a certain crypto derivatives exchange-an act of regulatory kindness that sounds more like a cease-and-desist’s slightly more generous cousin. CEO Shayne Coplan, likely rubbing his hands together with a mad scientist’s glee, said this meant they could go live in the USA.

Back in September, the word on the digital street hinted that if Polymarket opens its virtual doors again in the US, it might be worth up to a staggering $10 billion-an amount roughly enough to buy all the coffee needed to sustain a Silicon Valley startup for a year. Just last June, after a funding round that raised a cool $200 million, the platform was valued at around $1 billion-making it the billionaire of prediction platforms, without owning a single yacht (probably).

For now, a website waitlist appears to be the latest form of digital snobbery-sign up if you want to be among the first to contribute your guesses about the future, just before the government inevitably changes the rules again. Cryptic messages about “soon” and “US traders” suggest the curtain may be rising on this gamble-driven venture – or perhaps just the curtain on a very elaborate game of economic hide-and-seek.

America’s own version of Nostradamus? Possibly.

Meanwhile, in what can only be described as an amusing coincidence-unless you’re a betting enthusiast-Donald Trump’s own media escapade, Trump Media and Technology Group, has announced it’s entering the prediction market arena via its platform, Truth Social. Because if the past few years have shown anything, it’s that politics and prediction markets are basically the same thing-except one has tighter rules and a lot more tweets.

Interestingly, another platform called Kalshi ran into a little trouble with the CFTC over political event contracts, only to find themselves back in the good graces of regulators-possibly because regulators secretly enjoy a good political prediction as much as the rest of us. And so, the game continues, with speculation, legal battles, and the faint hope that maybe, just maybe, someone will get it right (or at least make a good joke about how wrong they are).

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2025-10-29 00:13