The Golden Globes Have Cemented The 98th Oscar Frontrunners

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The 83rd Golden Globes have been awarded, and the results are giving us a good idea of who might win at the Oscars. Although the Golden Globes and Oscars don’t always agree on winners, the Globes are often a reliable indicator of who will take home an Academy Award.

The Golden Globe winners were largely who everyone expected, confirming a few clear front-runners for major awards this season. Considering some surprising omissions from other awards shows, the Golden Globes have solidified who’s leading the race for the Oscars, and the competition is really heating up.

The Golden Globe’s Actor Categories Play Into Some Key Award Season Narratives

Image via A24

Although the Golden Globes have fewer voters than the Academy Awards, wins at the Golden Globes often position films and actors as strong contenders for Oscars. While surprises sometimes happen, how a film or performance is perceived during award season is usually very important for ultimately winning an Oscar.

When certain actors or films start gaining popularity, it becomes more likely they’ll maintain that success throughout awards season and potentially win an Oscar. That’s why the Golden Globes matter so much – their picks can really influence how the story of the awards season unfolds and solidify frontrunners.

Timothée Chalamet was a strong contender for Best Actor, but his Golden Globe win has likely made him the favorite over other nominees like Michael B. Jordan and Leonardo DiCaprio. Although Wagner Moura received an award for The Secret Agent, his lack of a SAG nomination probably lowers his chances of winning.

With the early positive reception and broad appeal of Marty Supreme, Timothée Chalamet is now the likely frontrunner to win the Oscar. The Best Actress race is closer, but Jesse Buckley’s win for Hamnet solidifies her position as a strong contender, as many had predicted.

Okay, so Jessie Buckley is up against some seriously talented actresses – Rose Byrne, who’s already got a Golden Globe, and Renate Reinsve, who was fantastic in Sentimental Value. But honestly, I think Hamnet being nominated in other categories is going to really help her chances. If Hamnet keeps getting lost in the shuffle next to One Battle After Another, I have a feeling voters will want to give something to the film, and Buckley’s performance is a perfect way to do that. It’s like, if the movie doesn’t win big elsewhere, they might rally around her instead.

Mary Byrne winning Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy is a major boost to her chances, likely moving her from an underdog to a near-certain nominee. However, the strong reputation of ‘Hamnet’ could prevent her from actually winning. Just like Mourna being overlooked by the SAG Awards, Reinsve’s absence from the nominations indicates she’s losing ground in the competition.

Leading up to the Golden Globes, everyone was debating who might win Best Supporting Actor and Actress. But in the end, the awards went to the two people most of us expected to be serious Oscar contenders: Stellan Skarsgård and Teyana Taylor. It felt like a pretty safe bet, honestly!

Both actors give strong performances, and this award category feels particularly unpredictable – it could easily go to Amy Madigan for Weapons or Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein. However, for either of them to really contend, they’ll need to start winning some awards before Skarsgard and Taylor solidify their leads.

The Golden Globes Gives The Best Picture Race A Clear Favorite

Even before the Oscars ceremony, three films – One Battle After Another, Hamnet, and Sinners – emerged as the leading contenders for the Best Picture and Best Director awards. Each film has strong supporters and a legitimate chance of winning.

Over time, One Battle After Another has been gaining more and more recognition, including recently at the Golden Globes. Considering Paul Thomas Anderson is widely expected to finally win an Oscar, many believe he’ll win Best Director and that his film will be named Best Picture – making this year’s Oscars a fitting conclusion to the awards season.

I don’t think Sinners and Hamnet will be totally shut out at the awards, though. Sinners already snagged a Golden Globe for Best Score, and that’s usually a pretty good sign for the Oscars. But what really has me curious, looking at these three films after the Golden Globes, is how things will shake out in the Best Screenplay category – that’s where it gets really interesting!

I was thrilled to see One Battle After Another win the Golden Globe! It definitely feels like a strong contender for the Oscars now. It’s interesting though, the Oscars and Golden Globes handle screenplays a little differently. The Globes give one award for the best script overall, but the Academy splits it into two – one for completely original stories and another for scripts based on existing material.

The race for awards heavily favors Sinners because One Battle After Another and Hamnet are competing against each other for the Adapted Screenplay Oscar, making Ryan Coogler the clear favorite for Best Original Screenplay. While Hamnet could still win Adapted Screenplay, its chances seem lower after the Golden Globes results.

The Best Original Song category at this year’s Oscars is shaping up to be particularly competitive, with many strong contenders. While the song from Sinners is still being talked about, KPop Demon Hunters winning a Golden Globe has made it the clear frontrunner for the Oscar in that category, especially for Netflix’s animated film.

With weeks still to go before the Oscars, the awards season could certainly change. However, the Golden Globes didn’t just give awards to the expected winners – they also boosted their chances of success at the Oscars. The Globes provided a significant confidence boost and solidified their positions as leading contenders.

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2026-01-12 23:21