As a seasoned analyst with over two decades of experience navigating financial markets, I have seen my fair share of rollercoaster rides and unpredictable events. The recent crypto market liquidations and Bitcoin price swings are no exception to this rule.
In simpler terms, nearly $350 million worth of cryptocurrencies were sold off due to a brief drop in Bitcoin’s price below $69,000, as it appeared that traders were becoming anxious ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
On November 3rd, a total of $349.78 million in positions were closed, with $259.7 million being long bets and $90.08 million being short bets, as reported by CoinGlass. This is the largest day of liquidations since October 25th, when Bitcoin (BTC) was unable to maintain a surge above $70,000.
Over the past week, Bitcoin’s value has experienced noticeable fluctuations. It began at approximately $67,700 on October 28th, peaked close to $73,300 the following day (October 29th), but then fell over subsequent days. On November 3rd, it briefly dipped to a low of $67,719 before rebounding.
It quickly recovered and is now trading at $69,145, per CoinGecko.
The unpredictable fluctuations in Bitcoin’s value correlate with a narrowing difference in betting odds on the Polymarket platform, between contenders for the U.S. presidency, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
By the start of October, predictions on Polymarket had Trump leading Harris as the probable victor in the November 5th elections, with his chances of success reaching a high of 67% on the 30th. However, since then, there’s been a significant adjustment, and his odds have fallen to 56%.
As a cryptocurrency investor, I find myself favoring the Republican presidential candidate due to their promising stance on the crypto industry. They’ve made it clear that if elected, they aim to dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler, and work towards establishing the United States as a global leader in digital assets, positioning us as the world capital of crypto.
In a moderated stance towards cryptocurrency, Democrat Kamala Harris has expressed her intent to establish a regulatory structure within the industry as part of her outreach to Black male voters.
The chances of Trump winning, as indicated by Polymarket, are becoming increasingly similar to the poll results, suggesting that Trump and Harris are almost evenly matched – a difference of just 0.9% was observed in favor of Harris on November 3, according to FiveThirtyEight data.
Certain investors predict that if Trump is elected, the value of Bitcoin might reach an astounding $100,000 by the year’s end. On the other hand, analysts from Bernstein suggest a potential sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price should Harris win the election before the year concludes.
Following the announcement of the election outcome, crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades foresaw that Bitcoin might experience a minimum shift of around 10%, potentially heading in either an upward or downward direction based on the eventual winner.
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2024-11-04 09:05