Bitcoin: 100 Days to Either the Moon or a Total Crash – Who’s Betting on Which?

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Key Points (Because You Need Them, Obviously):

  • Bitcoin is about to do something big. The Bollinger Bands are tighter than your last pair of jeans, but no one knows where it’s going yet.

  • History says this drama will resolve itself in about three months (give or take a meltdown or two).

  • BTC is teasing a new “price discovery uptrend” – which sounds all sorts of fancy and potentially lucrative, but will it actually happen?

Bitcoin (BTC) has 100 days to either go “parabolic” or totally crash its bull market. No pressure, right? Well, according to a new BTC price volatility analysis, it’s all coming down to this weird thing called the Bollinger Bands.

In a rather unassuming X post on Wednesday, trader Tony “The Bull” Severino dropped the bombshell: Bitcoin’s next big move could be either a wild ride to the moon, or a sad, sad descent into oblivion.

BTC Price Faces an Existential Crisis

So what’s the deal with Bollinger Bands? Well, it’s this classic volatility tool that gives us the perfect mixture of excitement and confusion. Recently, it hit record “tightness” on weekly timeframes, which means something’s got to give… but we still don’t know what. Oh, the suspense.

Analysts are staring at the bands, waiting for a breakout-either up or down. Everyone’s holding their breath. But Severino, being the voice of reason (and maybe the prophet of doom), warned that we might not see any dramatic moves immediately. It could take more than three months. Great.

“BTCUSD hasn’t exactly broken through the upper band with any real gusto,” he pointed out. Classic Bitcoin, always keeping us on edge.

“Based on past consolidation trends, this could drag out for 100+ days before we get a legitimate breakout-or, you know, a breakdown if Bitcoin decides to throw a tantrum and crash.”

The timeline here is based on Bitcoin’s past behavior during the bull run that started in early 2023, because why wouldn’t we look to the past to predict the future? Anyway, Severino said that if Bitcoin breaks through either of the bands with a clean daily candle, we’ll know it’s happening. But don’t get too comfy-he warns of “fake breakouts.” Oh, the drama.

“Heads up: this whole ‘Squeeze setup’ could lead to some fake outs. We’ve probably already seen one with Bitcoin’s last flirtation with $126,000,” Severino said.

“And hey, we might even get another fake out downward before the rocket ship finally launches.”

Bitcoin’s “Price Discovery Uptrend”-Coming Soon?

As CryptoMoon enthusiastically reported, previous bull markets have conditioned us all to expect a “blow-off top” for BTC/USD in October. But here we are, watching Bitcoin like a reality TV show where nothing is happening. Classic cliffhanger.

Despite the market hype, Bitcoin’s price action is still just… meh. The explosive upside we all expect during the final stage of a bull run is nowhere to be seen. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who’s been calling the shots from the sidelines, has some thoughts. Last month, he declared that Bitcoin’s cycles are getting longer, not shorter, which is the opposite of the “rapid climax” we were promised. Disappointing.

“It’s pretty unlikely Bitcoin has already peaked,” Rekt Capital said back when $124,500 was still the magic number. “If that was the peak, this bull market would be one of the shortest ever. Yikes.”

But wait-here comes the twist. This week, Rekt Capital’s got some fresh tea: we might be on the brink of a new “price discovery uptrend.” Fingers crossed, everyone.

#BTC

Price Discovery Correction 2 is over

In the end, it was indeed shallower but took about the same amount of time as previous cycles (2017, 2021).

Now, Bitcoin is on the cusp of entering Price Discovery Uptrend 3! #BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

– Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 6, 2025

Severino, of course, had to add his two cents. The Bollinger Bands breakout is about to change everything, he says.

“This could send Bitcoin parabolic-or bring an end to this three-year-long bull market. Choose your fighter.”

So, here we are, folks. Waiting. Watching. Hoping. Will Bitcoin go parabolic, or will we all be left holding the bag? Only time will tell. But don’t hold your breath, because this is Bitcoin. And Bitcoin never does anything the easy way.

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2025-10-09 12:49