Avatar: Fire And Ash Box Office Battle Determines Avatar 4’s Fate

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Despite doing well in theaters, this weekend is a key test for the future of the Avatar franchise. Avatar has consistently been a huge success in Hollywood. The original film is still the highest-grossing movie ever, earning $2.9 billion, and The Way of Water also performed incredibly well, bringing in $2.3 billion.

After a 13-year wait following the first movie, director James Cameron envisioned a larger story for the Avatar franchise. The Way of Water is the first of five planned films, with Avatar 5 intended to be the final installment. The third film, Fire and Ash, is in development, and films four and five are currently scheduled for release in 2029 and 2031, respectively.

Despite the recent success of Fire and Ash – which has earned $1.2 billion worldwide and is the fourth film of 2025 to reach that milestone – sequels 4 and 5 haven’t been officially approved yet. While Fire and Ash is doing well, it may need to demonstrate staying power against future competition.

Avatar: Fire And Ash Is Facing Notable Competition This Weekend

The movie Fire and Ash came out on December 19, 2025, and has been the number one film for the past four weekends. This success is likely due to the movie being part of a popular series and the fact that it hasn’t faced strong competition yet. When it was released, its main rivals were David, The Spongebob Movie: Search For Squarepants, and The Housemaid.

Avatar was a huge box office success, easily surpassing other films like Anaconda and Marty Supreme. It even reclaimed the top spot during the Christmas weekend and continued to dominate in early January, as new releases like Primate and Greenland 2: Migration couldn’t compete with its popularity.

This weekend, Avatar 3 faces strong competition from 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple. The new horror film, a sequel to 2025’s 28 Years Later, is currently the biggest release of 2026. It’s directed by Nia DaCosta and stars Ralph Fiennes and Jack O’Connell.

Danny Boyle, the director of the original film, returned to the series after over two decades with 28 Years Later, which was a critical and commercial success, earning $151.3 million globally on a $60 million budget. Now, The Bone Temple is receiving excellent reviews – currently holding a 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes – and is expected to benefit from the momentum of the previous installment.

Experts at Deadline predict the film will earn over $20 million during its opening weekend, slightly more than the expected $18-$19 million for Fire and Ash. Although staying at number one for four weeks in a row is a good result, being beaten by The Bone Temple could suggest Avatar 3 won’t be as successful as the previous Avatar movies.

Can Fire And Ash Reach $2 Billion?

© 20th Century Studios / Courtesy Everett Collection

While Fire and Ash is close to reaching $2 billion at the box office – needing just over $765 million more – it’s proving challenging. Avatar 3 needs a significant boost to join the previous two films in that exclusive financial bracket, as its box office performance is beginning to slow down despite a decent second weekend.

During its fourth weekend in theaters, Fire and Ash made $21.5 million in the US, which was a 48% decrease from the week before. In contrast, The Way of Water earned $45 million during its fourth weekend with a smaller drop of 32%. The Way of Water continued to perform well, with a 28% drop in its fifth weekend, showing it held audiences’ attention for a longer period.

Despite a slight downturn in North American ticket sales, Fire and Ash has still grossed approximately $87 million internationally over the past weekend. To reach a total of $2 billion worldwide, the film needs to continue performing well overseas. While The Way of Water hit the $2 billion mark just over a month after its debut, Fire and Ash is expected to take longer to achieve the same milestone.

James Cameron Still Isn’t Sure If Avatar 4 Is Happening

Currently, the planned release date for Avatar 4 is December 21, 2029. However, director James Cameron hasn’t officially confirmed the film is in production. He recently told Entertainment Weekly that if the sequels don’t move forward, he would publicly share the planned storylines at a press conference.

Cameron is already developing ideas for a fourth film, revealing to TVBS News that Michelle Yeoh is planned to appear. However, he emphasizes that the success of Fire and Ash is crucial for the project to move forward, and it would need to be made with a reduced budget.

The film industry is struggling at the moment. ‘Avatar 3’ was very expensive to make, so the next films need to be successful to keep the franchise going. We’re also looking for ways to produce future ‘Avatar’ movies more affordably. If we move forward with a fourth film, we plan to shoot it back-to-back with the fifth, telling one continuous story, just like we did with films two and three. Essentially, we’re planning these movies in pairs.

With a production cost of almost $400 million, Fire and Ash is already considered a financial success, having earned $1.2 billion worldwide. While reducing costs would be sensible, the film’s strong performance suggests that Avatar 4 would likely still be successful, even if it doesn’t match the box office numbers of the original Avatar and its sequel.

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2026-01-17 00:35