In 2025, four films earned over $1 billion worldwide. While Ne Zha 2 made most of its money internationally, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire and Ash were successful in both the US and abroad. Current projections suggest only four films are likely to reach the $1 billion mark in 2026, though there’s always a chance for a surprise hit. Oppenheimer almost reached that level, and Christopher Nolan’s new film, The Odyssey, could also perform well. However, as of now, only four films appear poised to cross the billion-dollar threshold.
Let’s consider how likely each of the four options is. Are any of them certain to happen? Let’s take a look.
4) The Mandalorian & Grogu
It’s been eight years since Solo: A Star Wars Story didn’t quite connect with audiences, and it looks like Disney is willing to take another big swing with a new theatrical release. But this time, they’re being a little more cautious. The success of The Mandalorian means they already have a dedicated fanbase eager for more Star Wars, which definitely lowers the risk.
The first two seasons of The Mandalorian (2019 and 2020) were the show’s peak in popularity. After a three-year break, the final season didn’t resonate as strongly with audiences. Now, with The Mandalorian & Grogu, there’s a question of whether that decline will continue. While it’s possible, it seems unlikely. The trailer has successfully generated excitement, though it feels more focused on fun than creating a major event.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 60%.
3) Toy Story 5
It’s tricky to directly compare the total earnings of the Toy Story movies worldwide, especially with the frequent re-releases of the first film. However, looking at inflation-adjusted numbers does show a pattern, and it doesn’t necessarily look great for the potential success of Toy Story 5.
If we adjust for inflation, the original Toy Story earned around $767 million worldwide. Toy Story 2 made about $961 million, and Toy Story 3 peaked at $1.576 billion. While Toy Story 4 still grossed a significant $1.352 billion, many wondered if a fourth film was necessary given the perfect ending of the third one. That same question applies to the fifth film, suggesting another drop in earnings. The big question now is whether that drop will push it below $1 billion. It probably won’t, but it’s unlikely to be as huge a hit as a film like Zootopia 2.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 75%
2) Spider-Man: Brand New Day
The Marvel Cinematic Universe isn’t the guaranteed money-maker it used to be. Even a well-received Fantastic Four movie didn’t perform exceptionally well. Now, it takes a major, standout event within the MCU to become a huge hit, like Deadpool & Wolverine in Phase Five and Spider-Man: No Way Home in Phase Four.
Although the Marvel Cinematic Universe isn’t quite as dominant as it used to be, Tom Holland’s Spider-Man remains incredibly popular. Despite Spider-Man: Brand New Day being a deliberately smaller story following No Way Home, there’s good reason to expect it will still earn over $1 billion at the box office. It’s likely to perform closer to Spider-Man: Far from Home’s $1.133 billion than No Way Home’s $1.921 billion, but most predictions still point to it reaching the ten-figure mark.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 85%
1) Avengers: Doomsday
The Marvel Cinematic Universe isn’t performing as strongly financially as it used to. However, Avengers: Doomsday is still expected to earn over $1 billion.
The fact that Robert Downey Jr. is involved – even in a new role – is a major reason this film is expected to do well financially. However, the real question is just how much money it will make. With a reported budget of over $600 million, reaching $1 billion at the box office might not even guarantee a profit. Everyone will be watching Doomsday closely – not only to see if it’s the biggest film of the winter season, but also to understand what its success (or failure) means for the future of this movie universe.
Chance it crosses $1 billion: 100%
Read More
- Darkwood Trunk Location in Hytale
- Best Controller Settings for ARC Raiders
- Hytale: Upgrade All Workbenches to Max Level, Materials Guide
- Ashes of Creation Rogue Guide for Beginners
- Daredevil Is Entering a New Era With a Chilling New Villain (And We Have A First Look) (Exclusive)
- RHOBH’s Jennifer Tilly Reacts to Sutton Stracke “Snapping” at Her
- So Long, Anthem: EA’s Biggest Flop Says Goodbye
- 7 Announcements We’re Dying to See at Dragon Ball’s Genki Dama Festival This Month
- The Rip Ending Explained: Who’s The Traitor (And What Those Tattoos Are About) In Ben Affleck And Matt Damon Thriller
- Golden Globes 2026: Gracie Abrams And Paul Mescal Have Rare Date Night
2026-01-18 03:12