You Won’t Believe What This Analyst Says About Bitcoin’s Future!

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So, Bitcoin (BTC), right? It’s like that stubborn relative who refuses to leave the party. Even with the US-Iran war going on, it’s managed to climb over 12% since February 28. Meanwhile, investors are left scratching their heads, wondering: has Bitcoin finally hit rock bottom, or is there still a deeper hole to dig?

In a chat with BeInCrypto, Benjamin Cowen-who by the way, is not just any analyst but a former NASA researcher turned crypto guru-shared his sage wisdom on where this chaotic market might be headed next. Because if there’s one thing we need, it’s more predictions from someone who used to work for NASA.

When Will Bitcoin Bottom?

Cowen went on to explain that Bitcoin’s cycle timing has been about as reliable as a broken clock. According to him, if you measure against the last two cycles, Bitcoin topped out within a week of when those cycles peaked. So, if history is any guide, we might be looking at a bottom about a year after the top. You know, just your average four-year cycle. Nothing too crazy.

“The base case has to just simply be that it’ll bottom when the other two cycles bottom, which is about a year after the top most likely scenario is October of 2026,” Cowen told BeInCrypto. Sounds so confident, doesn’t it? Almost like he knows what he’s talking about.

He even mentioned a scenario where Bitcoin could hit bottom as soon as May. But hold on a second! For that miracle to happen, we’d need a massive capitulation event that would make historical midterm years look like a walk in the park. Spoiler alert: that’s not happening anytime soon.

As long as Bitcoin’s year-to-date returns stay within the standard deviation band of prior midterm years, Cowen sees no reason to abandon his October theory. Because why change your mind when you can just stick to the script?

“And if you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 and you compare it to the average of prior midterm years, you throw in a standard deviation on that average. As long as we’re within this band, it’s hard to assume that we’re going to exit the band, especially this early in the midterm year,” he explained. Basically, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Especially when it comes to Bitcoin.

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Interestingly, Cowen’s outlook isn’t flying solo. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, pointed out that Bitcoin’s cycle top happened 534 days after the April 2024 halving-the shortest cycle peak compared to the previous ones. So, things are happening, folks. Just not the things you want.

Based on this dying pattern across cycles-because who doesn’t love a bit of decay?-Wedson thinks the market bottom could pop up roughly 912 to 922 days after the halving, landing us in the ballpark of late September or early October 2026. Math was never my strong suit, but that sounds about right!

Estimates from CryptoQuant back this up, suggesting a potential bottom somewhere between June and December 2026, with September through November being the most likely window. So basically, circle your calendars and prepare for disappointment.

Why This Cycle Topped on Apathy, Not Euphoria

Cowen also made a fascinating observation: while Bitcoin’s peak in this cycle aligns with previous timelines, it came under very different circumstances. In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin peaked amid retail euphoria, which then led to a rush into altcoins. This time, though? Social interest in crypto has been trending down since 2021. So, while everyone else was partying, Bitcoin was sitting in the corner, sipping its drink.

“This is a cycle where Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria, and the only other time it topped on apathy was actually back in 2019. When you top on apathy, you don’t get that same rotation,” he mentioned. It’s like showing up to a wedding and realizing it’s a dry bar. Nobody’s rotating anywhere.

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To wrap it all up, Cowen stands firm that the four-year cycle is alive and kicking. Right now, Bitcoin is trading at $73,831-still over 40% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000. If Cowen’s analysis holds water, brace yourself; there might be more downhill action before we hit the cycle’s floor. Because who doesn’t love a good roller coaster ride?

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2026-04-16 01:47