Under 1% of Polymarket Wallets Capture Half the Profits, New Study Finds

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A tiny group is winning on Polymarket as under 1% of wallets take half the profitsMarkets

What to know:

  • A new Solidus Labs analysis finds that fewer than 1 percent of Polymarket wallets captured about half of all profits in key political prediction markets between December 2025 and February 2026.
  • The report suggests a structural divide in prediction markets, with a tiny cohort of well-capitalized, technologically advanced traders consistently out-earning the broader user base.
  • Solidus also flags signs of wash trading and possible $POLY airdrop farming on Polymarket, even as it uses the on-chain data to promote its own market-surveillance platform.

In this article

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While a limited number of traders are active in prediction markets, an even more exclusive group is winning the vast majority of the profits.

A recent study by blockchain data firm Solidus Labs reveals that profits on Polymarket are heavily concentrated, with less than 1% of users earning around half of the total profits in major markets.

A new report shows that on Polymarket’s political prediction markets between December 2025 and February 2026, a very small number of traders made the vast majority of the profits. Specifically, just 0.55% of successful ‘maker’ traders earned half of all gains, and 0.26% of winning ‘taker’ traders captured almost as much. This means around $8 million out of a total of $16 million in profits went to each of these extremely small groups of traders.

New data supports existing research showing that a small group of traders – around 3% – are responsible for most of the price changes on Polymarket, according to a study by London Business School and Yale previously covered by CoinDesk.

A small minority moves the prices. A smaller minority keeps the money.

This difference highlights an important idea: simply having a large number of trades doesn’t mean anything illegal happened. Some traders are just more skilled, have more funding, or react to news more quickly. However, the report suggests the huge gap between these traders and everyone else points to a fundamental problem – a small, privileged group has a significant advantage over the majority of participants.

I’ve been reading a report that really highlights the gap between the big players and the rest of us in crypto. It basically says those who are making the *real* money aren’t even playing the same game as most of us. They have so much more capital, better technology, and much more sophisticated trading strategies – it’s just not something the average investor can compete with. It’s tough to swallow, but it explains why some consistently profit while others struggle.

Solidus’ research indicates potential wash trading activity, where about 15% of trading volume in certain markets appears to involve an entity trading with itself or making trades that don’t actually change overall market positions.

In a prediction market where the total value of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ outcomes typically equals $1.00, a trader can simultaneously bet on both Trump and Harris winning within the same timeframe. This strategy allows them to create offsetting positions, effectively eliminating financial risk while still participating in the market.

Solidus says this trade has no equivalent in traditional finance.

A portion of the recent trading activity might be users trying to qualify for rewards, not just artificially inflating prices. Many believe the upcoming $POLY token distribution on Polymarket will consider how much people have traded when deciding how many tokens each person receives.

Market surveillance sales pitch

Solidus isn’t an impartial source of information. They sell HALO, a surveillance system that this report is based on, and just agreed to expand its use to over 4,000 locations through Kalshi, a major competitor to Polymarket in the U.S.

As a researcher, I’ve found that the data supporting these prediction markets is publicly available on the blockchain, meaning anyone can independently verify it. A key part of the argument being made is that these markets require some kind of oversight system, and the presenters are particularly suggesting Solidus as the solution.

That doesn’t change the underlying numbers. It does suggest reading them with a hand on the wallet.

Previous studies suggested a small group of people significantly influenced these markets, but new data indicates this influence is even more concentrated.

Previous studies indicated that only a few people significantly influence these markets, but recent data reveals an even more surprising finding: a tiny group consistently comes out on top.

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2026-04-29 15:15