XRP’s $1.42 Close: The Key to Unlocking Bullish Momentum?

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<a href="https://pricpr.com/xrp-usd/">XRP</a> At $1.40 on Falling Exchange Activity, but $1.42 Close is the Real Test

Key Takeaways

  • XRP at $1.39, broke above $1.40 on May 4.
  • Exchange deposit transactions at 473: 30-day low on Binance.
  • April 28-29: $61M outflow at price low, not selling.
  • Bybit OI delta: $23.9M positive on May 1.
  • Bybit reserves fell 16.2% since mid-March.
  • Binance reserves fell 1.8% since mid-March.
  • Whale to exchange flow collapsed to 1,000: near zero.
  • Confirmation signal: daily close above $1.42.

What Happened at the April 28 Price Low Is Not What It Looks Like

On April 28th and 29th, XRP reached its lowest price in a month, falling to $1.35. At the same time, Binance saw unusually high activity on its network: a surge of $40 million worth of XRP entered the exchange, followed by $44 million leaving (equivalent to $61 million in US dollars), and a peak of 13,900 XRP deposit transactions.

Focusing only on money coming *into* an exchange can hide what’s really happening. The amount of money leaving is more significant. For example, $61 million worth of XRP recently left Binance when the price was at its lowest point this month. Importantly, this wasn’t sold *during* the price drop; it was completely withdrawn from the exchange.

Someone recently withdrew $61 million worth of XRP from Binance when the price was between $1.35 and $1.36. This suggests they were intentionally buying XRP, not selling, and likely at a time when prices were temporarily low. Moving funds away from a selling platform during a dip like that doesn’t fit the pattern of someone trying to cash out.

Every Exchange Activity Metric Has Collapsed to a 30-Day Low

Since peaking on April 28th and 29th, all activity on cryptocurrency exchanges has significantly decreased over the past 30 days. Binance deposits are now at 473, a steep drop from around 13,900. The amount of cryptocurrency moving from large holders (‘whales’) to exchanges has also fallen dramatically, from a high of 39,000 to just 1,000. Currently, exchanges are receiving 328,000 coins and sending out 791,000, based on data from CryptoQuant.

The market that saw the biggest sell-off this month is now remarkably quiet. People aren’t sending any new XRP to Binance to sell, and large holders aren’t moving their tokens there either. Essentially, all activity related to selling—deposits, transactions, and movement by major investors—has stopped.

As an analyst, I’ve been observing this market closely, and it’s important to understand that a lack of selling isn’t always the same thing. Just because there’s no sell pressure at $1.35 versus $1.40 doesn’t mean the underlying situation is identical. While the *reason* for the lack of selling is the same – strong buying – the *implication* changes with the price. When the price was at $1.35 and nobody was selling, it signaled that buyers were actively accumulating the asset. Now that we’ve broken $1.40 with continued lack of selling, it suggests that accumulation is starting to drive the price upwards, and the market is responding to that buying pressure.

Leverage Is Building Where Supply Is Falling

Data from CryptoQuant, highlighted by analyst Amr Taha, shows a significant increase in XRP derivative activity on May 1st. Bybit saw a $23.9 million rise in open interest, while Binance only recorded a $2.7 million increase. This positive change in open interest indicates that traders were opening new positions, suggesting growing confidence as XRP’s price began to rebound. This increase in leveraged positions happened as XRP recovered from a low of $1.35, confirming that traders were actively investing in the recovery rather than waiting for a definitive price surge.

Here’s what’s happening with XRP on cryptocurrency exchanges: Bybit has seen a 16.2% decrease in its XRP holdings since mid-March, dropping from around 117 million to 98.9 million XRP. In comparison, Binance’s XRP reserves only decreased slightly, by 1.8% (from 2.80 billion to 2.76 billion XRP). Interestingly, trading with borrowed funds (leverage) is increasing on the exchange where XRP supply has decreased the most.

This situation looks promising for XRP. Traders on Bybit are increasingly betting on a price increase (going ‘long’ with leverage), and at the same time, there’s less and less XRP available on the exchange to cover those bets. This means the new leveraged positions aren’t being funded by an influx of XRP; instead, they’re driven by strong belief in XRP’s potential.

The Counter-Argument

Looking at past price movements, XRP’s highest point was $1.51 in mid-April, after which the price dropped to $1.35. The $1.40 to $1.42 range was hit during that decline, and now the price is moving through it again. Many XRP holders who bought in that $1.40 to $1.51 range are close to recovering their initial investment, which could lead to increased selling and put downward pressure on the price.

Trading volume over the past 24 hours reached $1.4 billion, showing there’s buyer interest. However, it doesn’t guarantee buyers are currently more powerful than sellers who are hoping to break even. CoinDesk points out $1.42 as a key price level to watch. This price is where many investors who bought near the April high and are currently operating at a loss are likely to sell.

What prevents the pessimistic outlook from playing out? Data from the blockchain doesn’t indicate that large holders are preparing to sell. Currently, there are 473 deposit transactions and inflows from major players (whales) total 1,000. If those who bought at the April high were planning to sell now, we’d see a rise in deposit transactions, but that isn’t happening.

The Close That Confirms the Structure

The signal we’re looking for is XRP finishing the day with a price above $1.42, either on May 4th or within the next few days. If it does, that breaks through a key resistance level and suggests the positive trends we’re seeing in the underlying data – like decreasing selling, falling XRP supply, and increased leverage on Bybit – are finally resulting in a lasting price increase.

If XRP falls below $1.38 and closes the day below its major moving averages, it would signal a likely price decline. This would suggest the recent rise above $1.40 was just a temporary move to trigger sales, similar to what happened at the high point in April, rather than a sustained recovery.

Before the price increased, data on the blockchain showed some interesting patterns. Deposits were at their lowest point in 30 days, and large investors (whales) weren’t making significant moves. Right as the price hit a low point, $61 million was taken out. Also, traders on Bybit were increasing their leveraged positions as reserves decreased. XRP then surpassed $1.40. These conditions existed *before* the price change confirmed anything. Once the price closed above $1.42 for the day, these patterns signaled a new, established trend.

This article is just for informational and educational purposes, and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before you invest.

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2026-05-04 14:55