Ethereum Was Rejected 5 Times at One Level: Can It Finally Break?

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<a href="https://jpyeur.com/eth-usd/">Ethereum</a> Was Rejected 5 Times at One Level: Can It Finally Break?

Key Takeaways

  • ETH at $2,118.
  • SMA100 at $2,155.96: $16 above the Fibonacci level, rejected price five times recently.
  • Van de Poppe: ETH decline macro-driven, DeFi/bond yield correlation about to reverse.
  • SMA50 at $2,264.49 and Fibonacci 0.382 at $2,263.66 confluent: double ceiling above.
  • RSI at 40.04, signal at 39.16: first positive spread in visible range.

As of today, Ethereum is trading around $2,118. This price is nearing two key resistance levels, and whether it breaks through them will indicate if the recent price increase is a lasting recovery or just a short-term bounce. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes this price range is a good zone to accumulate Ethereum, suggesting his analysis goes beyond just looking at the price chart itself.

The Two-Level Sequence the Chart Requires

Ethereum faces key resistance around $2,140 (based on the 0.618 Fibonacci level) and $2,155 (the 100-day Simple Moving Average). These levels are only about $16 apart, so breaking through $2,140 could quickly lead to a test of $2,155. The $2,155 level has previously stopped price increases five times, and it needs to be decisively broken to confirm a potential recovery above $2,200.

The 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels are hard to read on the chart, as the numbers are partially hidden and we’re estimating their values based on their position on the price scale. Currently, the price is about $21 below the 0.618 level and $37.54 below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA100). Think of the Fibonacci level as the initial signal, and the SMA100 as confirmation of that signal.

The order in which price moves matters here, due to recent activity around the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA100). The price has been turned away from this level five times recently, suggesting a lot of sell orders and traders betting against the price are positioned there. If the price decisively breaks above the SMA100 with strong trading volume, those traders might be forced to buy back to cover their positions, which would add to any natural buying interest. However, if the price fails to break through and is rejected for a sixth time, it would strongly suggest the SMA100 is acting as a firm resistance level that the current price momentum can’t overcome.

The chart highlights an interesting pattern: the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA50) at $2,264.49 is very close to a Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382 at $2,263.66. Both of these levels are just above the 100-day SMA, creating a strong resistance area. If the price rises and breaks through the 100-day SMA and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $2,201.81, it will likely encounter significant resistance because the declining SMA50 and the 0.382 Fibonacci level are nearly aligned.

If the price drops below its current level, the next key support area is around $2,052, based on the Fibonacci 0.786 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 40.04, very close to its signal line at 39.16 – the smallest difference we’ve seen on the chart. This suggests that the selling pressure might be weakening, although it doesn’t yet confirm a price increase.

Why Van de Poppe Says This Is the Area to Accumulate

Van de Poppe believes a key factor supporting his idea of future price increases is the relationship between DeFi and government bond yields. He argues the recent drop in ETH isn’t a problem with the technology itself, but a natural reaction to broader economic conditions. He expects these conditions to change, creating a buying opportunity – and unlike typical chart-based signals, this prediction focuses on the underlying cause of the price movement, not just the effect.

This is the area to accumulate .

For years, this foundational technology has been underdeveloped, but it’s essential for nearly all activity within the blockchain world.

The past months, the price of Ethereum has gone down primarily due to macroeconomic reasons.…

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL)

He argues that Ethereum’s recent price drop is mainly caused by broader economic factors, not issues specific to the Web3 world. He believes that when bond yields decrease, investment will flow back into DeFi, and Ethereum will likely see the biggest gains.

He views Ethereum (ETH) as the essential base layer for most activity within the blockchain world, acknowledging it’s been underdeveloped for some time despite its importance. Looking at the ETH/BTC price chart, he’s been watching the current support level since the price dropped from 0.0325 BTC, and believes buying ETH within the current price range could be a good starting point. However, his analysis is cautious and doesn’t include specific price predictions or a timeline.

The Tom Lee and BitMine Connection

Tom Lee recently noted that BitMine (BMNR) is being considered for inclusion in the FTSE Russell Russell 1000 index.

As an analyst, I’m watching this development closely, and it’s much bigger than just stock market movement. If these disclosures are verified, index funds and ETFs will essentially *have* to buy shares of BMNR, potentially bringing 20-25% of the company’s value under passive ownership – meaning a significant investment without any active choice to purchase Ethereum. This influx of capital would substantially improve BMNR’s financial standing and open up more avenues for funding, both through stock offerings and borrowing. Ultimately, this could give the company – already the largest public holder of Ethereum with over 5.2 million ETH – the resources to buy even more.

FTSE Russell published their preliminary index inclusions and deletions

Bitmine is being considered for inclusion in the Russell 1000 index because its market capitalization exceeds the $5.7 billion minimum requirement for large-cap companies. Many investment managers focus their purchases on stocks within the Russell 1000.

— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com (@fundstrat)

If a company joins the Russell 1000 index while holding a significant amount of Ethereum – currently 4.37% of the total supply – and then uses the resulting investment opportunities to buy even more, it would greatly increase the already high concentration of Ethereum held by institutions. This situation highlights that both the recent market activity and a company’s financial decisions are focused on the same asset.

If the price closes above the 100-day Simple Moving Average with increasing trading volume for the next three days, it would signal a breakout and suggest a move towards $2,201.81 (the 0.5 retracement level), and potentially towards $2,264 (where the 50-day Simple Moving Average and the 0.382 retracement level converge). However, if the price fails to break above either the 0.618 retracement level or the 100-day Simple Moving Average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below its signal line, it would suggest continued selling pressure. In that case, the next likely support level to be tested would be around $2,052 (the 0.786 retracement level).

As a researcher, I want to be clear that the information I present here is strictly for educational purposes. It’s not financial, investment, or trading advice. I don’t support or recommend any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Before you make any investment decisions, please do your own thorough research and, importantly, consult with a qualified financial advisor.

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2026-05-25 14:36