What to know:
- Bitcoin has rebounded into the mid-$70,000s since February, but on-chain data show apparent demand has slumped to its weakest level since December 2025, with more coins hitting the market than buyers are absorbing.
- The rally has been driven more by futures than by spot buying, as evidenced by a persistently negative Coinbase Premium, leaving prices vulnerable because leveraged positions can unwind quickly.
- Unless fresh spot demand emerges, the $70,000 level, identified as the short-term trader realized price, remains a key zone where recent buyers’ paper gains vanish and the incentive to take profits diminishes.
Bitcoin’s rebound is running into a demand problem.
Despite bitcoin remaining around $75,000 after recovering from a low of $65,000 in April, demand appears to be weakening. CryptoQuant’s 30-day demand metric recently hit -147,000 BTC, its lowest level since December 2025.
This metric looks at the balance between newly created bitcoins and older coins being used again, compared to how much bitcoin buyers are currently purchasing. If the result is positive, it means buyers are acquiring both new and reactivated coins. A negative result indicates that more coins are becoming available than buyers are currently buying.
The latter is the issue with the current rally.
Bitcoin’s price has risen significantly since April, but this increase hasn’t led to consistent buying pressure that would typically indicate a sustained upward trend. While data earlier this month showed demand was improving – moving from a deficit of 91,000 BTC in April to around 11,000 BTC, nearly reaching a point of balance – more recent figures show that improvement has reversed, with the deficit now around 147,000 BTC.
Recent data supports this trend. The Coinbase Premium has been negative since late April, indicating that buyers in the U.S. haven’t been as eager to purchase as those trading internationally.
This indicates that buyers in the futures market have been primarily responsible for the recent price increase from $65,000. This is significant because rallies driven by futures contracts can quickly reverse. These positions can be closed rapidly if funding rates change or liquidations begin. Buying on the spot market tends to be more stable, as buyers use full funds and acquire actual Bitcoin, making that demand less likely to vanish with a small price drop.
This doesn’t necessarily mean bitcoin’s price will fall right away. It can stay within its current range for a while, even days or weeks, if demand remains weak. However, if buyers want to drive the price higher, they’ll need to start actively purchasing more bitcoin.
If the current buying interest doesn’t appear, the $70,000 price level is still key. According to CryptoQuant, this is where many recent buyers would start to experience minimal profits, potentially reducing their motivation to sell.
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2026-05-26 15:42