Bitcoin is currently trading near its lowest price since late 2024, and one analyst believes it could still fall further.
BTC’s Historical Data Points To Longer Correction
On Wednesday, Rekt Capital, a cryptocurrency analyst, looked at Bitcoin’s price movements in past market cycles to estimate how near the lowest point of its current decline might be.
In a video analysis on X, the market watcher explained that BTC’s deviations from previous all-time highs (ATHs) could serve as key reference points for this assessment. Notably, Bitcoin bottomed 22% from the 2017 peak during the last cycle’s correction. Now, it is trading roughly 14% below the 2021 peak of $69,000, which could suggest the bottom may be approaching.
The analyst explained that focusing on this one number isn’t enough to get a complete picture. He emphasized the importance of considering how long previous Bitcoin bear markets have lasted, as they typically last at least a year, and can sometimes go on even longer.
Bitcoin typically takes around a year to finish a major price drop, as seen during the 2021-2022 bear market. This current dip has lasted about 240 days, and if it ends soon, it would be much shorter than previous downturns.
Based on past patterns, Bitcoin’s current dip could last another four months, potentially hitting its lowest point around October. If this cycle resembles longer historical trends, the downturn could even extend further.
Bitcoin Bottom Another 20% Below?
The analyst highlighted that while the duration of the bear market is important, the depth of its retracement is another crucial factor. Last cycle, Bitcoin dropped 77%, while it declined 84% during its 2018 bear market.
Despite the recent decline, the market hasn’t fallen very far – only 53% of the way through this current cycle. This suggests it could still drop further. He pointed out that bear markets have been getting milder, with each correction being about 7-10% less severe than the last.
If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could see a potential retracement near 70% this cycle, placing BTC’s bottom in the high $30,000 range. Meanwhile, if the shallowing trend accelerates toward a 10% reduction, the bottom could form near the low $40,000 region.
The analyst believes the next four to five months will be crucial, as the market could fall another 20%. He explained that past market downturns have often included periods of stability before continuing to drop, ultimately reaching their lowest point.
As a crypto investor, I’ve been following Rekt Capital’s analysis closely, and he’s really highlighted something important: this current bear market isn’t just a downturn, it’s building the base for the next big bull run. He believes what happens in the next few months – hitting a true bottom – is critical, because that will set us up for potentially years of price increases. It’s a good reminder to focus on the long-term potential and not get too discouraged by the current situation.
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2026-06-11 00:42