A well-known cryptocurrency analyst predicts Bitcoin’s price will likely fall significantly, pointing to a specific factor as the reason.
Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen recently told his nearly one million YouTube followers that Bitcoin is still in a downtrend, as it’s struggled to break past a key technical level – the 200-day simple moving average.
According to Cowen, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) reliably predicts where Bitcoin’s price will go. He points to 2018 and 2022 as instances where Bitcoin touched the 200-day SMA and subsequently experienced a price drop.
According to Cowen, historical patterns suggest two potential ways Bitcoin’s price could fall in the near future.
If the market falls below its 200-day moving average, one pessimistic outlook suggests it could decline through May, stabilize briefly, and then fall further in June, potentially reaching the low it hit in February of last year. After that, a temporary recovery might occur in July and August, before another drop into October, which could mark the lowest point of this market cycle.
Looking at his chart, Cowen suggests that Bitcoin will bottom at around $46,000.
According to Cowen, even if Bitcoin’s price drops, it could first experience another significant increase, potentially reaching around $80,000, before eventually hitting its lowest point.
We’ve consistently observed that the price tends to pause around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level before experiencing a final decline and potentially signaling the end of the bear market.
It looks like Bitcoin could fall again in June, which would make me think it’s going down, but then it often bounces back up to around $87,000. People criticize my predictions when that happens, and then we usually see another drop later in the year, around the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin is trading for $76,861 at time of writing, flat on the day.
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2026-05-20 17:02