Markets
What to know:
- Bitcoin bounced to about 77,700 after reclaiming 75,600 as support, eyeing another heroic, perhaps foolhardy, push toward 80,000.
- Futures open interest has been falling like a very ineffectual stock of Tupperware, signaling de-risking, while options markets still show a fondness for downside protection-basically hedging like a paranoid hedgehog.
- Memecoins surged with inflows into DOGE and SHIB, suggesting speculative activity is dancing again and may precede a market wobble.
Bitcoin is trading around 77,700, up 1.8% since midnight UTC, after rebounding from 75,650, which had behaved like an unhelpful bouncer at last week’s rally.
The rebound hints at a bullish tilt, with 75,650 acting as support-crucial if bitcoin wants another crack at 80,000, as if the number has something to prove.
Ether (ETH) is around 2,344, with a chart showing more bearish signals than Bitcoin’s, having made a string of lower highs since April 17.
The wider market is higher as U.S. investors wait for tech earnings. Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) report after the bell on Wednesday.
Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 0.25% in pre-market trading.
Derivatives positioning
- Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) fell to 715.60K BTC, the lowest since April 9 and well below the monthly high of 800K BTC. The decline suggests de-risking as the spot price nears 80k, with some analysts penciling in further bear-iness.
- OI has held steady for ETH, SOL, XRP in the past 24 hours.
- Traders continue to sling capital into DOGE futures, lifting OI by 18% in a day to 16.06 billion tokens-the highest since Oct 10.
- With perpetual funding around 4% annualized and the highest OI-adjusted volume delta among majors, DOGE activity seems driven by fresh directional bets rather than reckless leverage, implying the trend is less a meme and more a mood.
- Binance-listed SHIB futures show a similar bullish setup. Rising activity in these not-so-serious tokens hints at a froth build-up often seen before a broader pullback.
- Crude oil futures on Binance are heating up, with open interest rising 27% as prices top $100, posing a headwind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
- Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index is sliding toward three-month lows under 42%. Markets seem desensitized to macro risks like Iran tensions and pricey oil. Ether’s volatility index is showing a similar yawning calm.
- Deribit options remain the same: puts for BTC and ETH are pricier than calls, with the premium resilience stronger for Bitcoin than Ether.
Token talk
- Altcoins showed strength on Wednesday after being previously oversold-proof that everyone loves a good bargain bin.
- CoinDesk Memecoin Select Index (CDMEME) is the star, up 2.3% since midnight UTC, while the DeFi Select Index (DFX) rose 2.2%.
- Bitcoin-dominant CD20 and CD5 indexes rose 1.7%.
- Popular memecoins DOGE, PEPE and FLOKI led the pack in the CoinDesk 100, up 10%, 6.3%, and 6.2% respectively.
- CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season indicator nudged up to 41/100 from 39/100, which is enough to convince a few buyers that the cycle is indeed upon us.
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2026-04-29 13:53