Ebaster’s coverage of the 2026 Oscars continues with a preview of the Best Supporting Actor category, which is shaping up to be a very competitive race at the 98th Academy Awards. Following Kieran Culkin’s win for A Real Pain last year, I’ll be offering predictions and analysis throughout the rest of awards season.
Recently, the Best Supporting Actor award has consistently gone to actors winning the award for the very first time—in fact, the last six winners were all first-timers. Mahershala Ali’s win for Green Book stopped this from being an even longer streak. It’s something interesting to consider as we look ahead to the 2026 awards season.
Several actors hoping to win their first Oscar are in contention this year. Longtime performers like Adam Sandler, Delroy Lindo, Stellan Skarsgård, and William H. Macy are all seeking their first Academy Award, but some previous winners are also being considered.
Ultimately, voters need to choose between rewarding established actors and giving recognition to up-and-coming talents or those who deserve a win. That’s my current take on the Best Supporting Actor category, but I’ll be updating my predictions as the Oscars season progresses.
Commentary and predictions updated on October 31
The Best Supporting Actor Nomination Frontrunners
While the awards season is still ongoing, some actors are already looking like strong contenders for the 2026 Best Supporting Actor Oscar. Early buzz from film festivals and positive reviews are influencing my predictions for who will be nominated.
| Rank | Actor | Movie |
|---|---|---|
| 1) | Stellan Skarsgård | Sentimental Value |
| 2) | Sean Penn | One Battle After Another |
| 3) | Paul Mescal | Hamnet |
| 4) | Adam Sandler | Jay Kelly |
| 5) | Jacob Elordi | Frankenstein |
Ever since Sentimental Value premiered at Cannes, Stellan Skarsgård has been a strong contender for recognition. Critics have consistently praised his performance, with Graeme Guttman of ScreenRant calling his work in the film “brilliant” and giving it a perfect score.
This year marks a first for Skarsgård – he’s finally an Oscar contender. If the film receives multiple nominations, including a potential bid for Best Picture, his performance could become a defining feature of the movie.
Most of the current Oscar talk for Best Supporting Actor focuses on Sean Penn’s performance. When One Battle After Another was released in theaters, predictions about its chances at the Academy Awards increased, and Penn quickly became a frontrunner for a nomination.
Wow, Sean Penn is just phenomenal in this role. He plays this awful, racist colonel, but you really see the layers – he’s desperate for power, wants to be accepted, and is even searching for love, though in a totally messed up way. Honestly, I think this is his best work in years, and it’s great to see him back on top. With his history at the Academy – five nominations and two wins already – I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a lot of recognition for this performance.
Early reviews of Chloé Zhao’s film, Hamnet, suggest Paul Mescal is a strong contender for an Oscar nomination. While he could potentially win in the Best Actor category, Focus Features will be campaigning for him as Best Supporting Actor.
Paul Mescal received an Oscar nomination for Aftersun, which many found surprising. While he wasn’t considered a contender for awards with Gladiator II, he now appears to be in a strong position to earn another nomination, making him a serious competitor in the category.
Could this finally be Adam Sandler’s year at the Oscars? Despite a critically acclaimed performance in Uncut Gems, he’s never been nominated for an Academy Award. However, his new film, Jay Kelly – a collaboration with director Noah Baumbach – might finally change that.
Although the movie centers on George Clooney’s character, Adam Sandler seems more likely to receive awards attention. He’s delivered strong dramatic performances in films like Punch-Drunk Love, The Meyerowitz Stories, Uncut Gems, and Hustle—all overlooked by the Academy Awards.
Four actors seem secure in their chances of being nominated, but the fifth spot is still up for grabs. I initially thought Delroy Lindo would get nominated for his performance in Sinners, but now it seems less likely. Currently, Jacob Elordi is receiving a lot of attention for his dedication to the role of Frankenstein’s Monster in Guillermo del Toro’s film.
The impressive makeup effects used to create the monster could be a major advantage for the film, potentially helping it win awards in other categories at the Oscars. As the actor and the movie gain more attention and support, his profile is rising within the industry, and he’s finally receiving the recognition he deserves.
Jacob Elordi’s nomination for a Gotham Award proves his talent is being recognized beyond just online film communities. With nominations also going to Alexander Skarsgård and Adam Sandler, I’m even more confident they’ll be contenders at the Oscars.
It’s surprising that Penn and Mescal weren’t nominated, considering their films, One Battle After Another and Hamnet, received attention elsewhere. However, they’re both well-known actors, so I still expect them to be nominated for the Oscars, even though the Gothams highlighted other strong performances that might not be Oscar contenders.
Actors Still In The Mix
As the awards season progresses, several other actors are emerging as strong contenders for Best Supporting Actor. They’ll get a clearer sense of their potential for success once their films are released and early award nominations begin to be announced.
There are three actors—Lindo, Miles Caton, and Jack O’Connell—who could be nominated for their work in Sinners. Lindo and Caton seem more likely to be contenders, potentially disrupting the expected nominees. Lindo is a seasoned actor still hoping for his first nomination, and Caton is a rising star whose performance is linked to the film’s chances for a Best Original Song award.
| Actor | Movie |
|---|---|
| Alexander Skarsgård | Pillion |
| Andrew Garfield | After the Hunt |
| Andrew Scott | Blue Moon |
| Benicio del Toro | One Battle After Another |
| Billy Crudup | Jay Kelly |
| Bradley Cooper | Is This Thing On? |
| Delroy Lindo | Sinners |
| Diego Luna | Kiss of the Spider Woman |
| Ethan Slater | Wicked: For Good |
| Idris Elba | A House of Dynamite |
| Jack O’Connell | Sinners |
| Jacobi Jupe | Hamnet |
| James Belushi | Song Sung Blue |
| Jeremy Strong | Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere |
| Jonathan Bailey | Wicked: For Good |
| Josh O’Connor | Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery |
| Mark Hamill | The Life of Chuck |
| Miles Caton | Sinners |
| William H. Macy | Train Dreams |
If more people start appreciating the book Train Dreams, William H. Macy could become a serious contender. Bradley Cooper’s chances are also improving as Is This Thing On? gains popularity. Plus, Jeremy Strong shouldn’t be counted out, especially after his nomination last year for The Apprentice, and now with Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere getting attention.
Benicio del Toro, who previously won a Best Supporting Actor award, is a strong contender for his third nomination. His potential nomination would be a key indicator of how much recognition voters are willing to give to Paul Thomas Anderson’s film.
It’s possible all six leading actors could receive nominations, and some people are predicting that will happen. However, I disagree. While Guillermo del Toro received a Gotham Award nomination instead of Sean Penn, I don’t think that puts him ahead in the overall awards race. It does prove that Penn, who previously won for Traffic, remains a strong contender.
Okay, so Guillermo del Toro is the frontrunner here, but he’s not a lock. If voters are open to recognizing two actors from the same film – which isn’t super common – Billy Crudup and Jacobi Jupe both have a shot. Their movies would need to be strong contenders overall for that to happen, and honestly, I think it’s a bit of a long shot to see the Academy nominate both of them. Del Toro is still the one to beat, though.
Many actors are hoping to receive their first nominations, including Andrew Scott (for Blue Moon), Idris Elba (A House of Dynamite), Diego Luna (Kiss of the Spider Woman), and James Belushi (Song Sung Blue). Andrew Scott’s chances improved after being nominated by the Gotham Awards, and Alexander Skarsgård’s (Pillion) inclusion as a nominee suggests he’s a strong contender as well.
Several well-known actors could receive nominations. Jonathan Bailey or Ethan Slater might be nominated for Wicked: For Good. Josh O’Connor has a chance with Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, as do Andrew Garfield in After the Hunt and Mark Hamill in The Life of Chuck.
Predicted Best Supporting Actor Winner
Based on current indications, Bill Skarsgård seems most likely to win. He has the most prominent role in Sentimental Value, playing a troubled, estranged father who’s a struggling filmmaker battling heartbreak and a drinking problem.
Stellan Skarsgård’s established acting career will likely be a strong asset. He’s a well-known and highly regarded actor with a long history in the industry. While many recognize him from major franchises like Marvel’s Cinematic Universe, Dune, and Star Wars (especially Andor), he’s consistently demonstrated his talent without receiving a lot of awards recognition.
There’s a growing feeling that this could be the moment for recognition. His acting is already being praised as Oscar-worthy, and he seems to have strong support. Beyond that, people are eager to finally acknowledge a consistently excellent actor, and the film itself is also gaining positive attention – all of which could give him a real chance at winning.
While Sentimental Value is expected to perform strongly in all categories, its chances of winning aren’t entirely clear. This puts Alexander Skarsgård in a key position, as voters will likely decide if his performance is the most award-worthy aspect of the film. Currently, he’s the frontrunner to win Best Supporting Actor at the 2026 Oscars.
ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:
- Oscars 2026 Predictions In All 24 Categories: Nominees & Winners
- Oscars 2026 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Director Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
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2025-10-31 21:14