Cardano’s ADA token has significantly underperformed over the last year. Data from the Cardano blockchain shows that over 40% of ADA holders are currently operating at a loss compared to their investments from a year ago.
This situation could actually be positive for the asset, particularly when considered alongside recent analysis from well-known analyst Ali Martinez.
Double- or Triple-Digit Surge for ADA Next?
Currently, ADA is being tested around the $0.25 support level. It’s briefly dropped to this level a few times in the last month, but has so far managed to stay above it. The only time it fell below was during a quick dip on February 6th, briefly reaching $0.22, but it recovered quickly.
According to Martinez’s analysis, whenever Cardano’s token has rebounded from this particular support level in the past, it has seen significant price increases. Specifically, it jumped 85% in early 2023 and then soared another 200% between October 2023 and March 2024.
The last two times Cardano $ADA traded around $0.25, it bounced 85% and 200%.
What do you think happens now?
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 24, 2026
Recently, a trading indicator called the TD Sequential flashed a buy signal for ADA on its weekly chart. This happened after the price fell from a high of $0.44 in mid-January to its current value of $0.26. Despite this 40% price decrease over the past two months, ADA is still more than 90% below its record high of over $3.00 from September 2021.
ADA Wallets in Red
According to data from Santiment reported by CryptoPotato today, Cardano investors are still experiencing losses, with the number of active wallets decreasing by 43% over the last year.
Despite this significant drop in the MVRV value, it’s often seen as a positive sign. It suggests the asset may have reached its lowest point and could be a good time to buy.
According to analysts at Santiment, when crypto markets experience significant losses – a ‘zero-sum game’ with negative average returns – it often signals a potential recovery. This is because, historically, coins tend to average a 0% return across all timeframes. When many traders are losing money, experienced investors see this as a lower-risk opportunity to buy or increase their holdings.
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2026-03-24 13:16