Bitcoin’s Slow Dance to Pain: Bears and Bulls Play the Waiting Game

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As Bitcoin flounders in its eternal quest for relevance, analysts, who seem to enjoy torturing themselves with endless graphs and numbers, are now closely observing the various investor factions, each of which has an unparalleled talent for picking the wrong moments to be optimistic.

“One of the crucial groups in this drama is the long-term holders (LTH), a breed of investors famously indifferent to the whims of short-term price swings,” remarked the ever-mysterious CryptoQuant analyst known only as ‘Darkfost’ on Tuesday, perhaps after a particularly strong cup of coffee.

At present, these resilient souls-otherwise known as the “Hodlers”-are basking in the glow of a 74% average profit, although, as the price stubbornly drifts toward their cost basis of around $38,900, that once-shiny profit seems destined to lose its luster like a forgotten coin at the bottom of a dusty old piggy bank.

Bear Market Crashes Through Cost Basis: Everyone Panics

Darkfost, ever the harbinger of doom, dug through the dusty annals of Bitcoin’s history, pointing out that every bear market, without fail, has been defined by the moment when the price plummets below the cherished cost basis, heralding a dramatic phase of capitulation. And by “capitulation,” he means, of course, the moment when everyone realizes they’ve been holding a bag of cold, hard losses for far too long. “Expect a 20% loss on average,” he added helpfully, as if that wasn’t obvious already.

Only after the dramatic tears of the market’s final exhale does recovery begin, the analyst noted with a tone of faint hope. How lovely.

BTC Drifting Toward the LTH Pain Point

“History has shown us that every bear market is marked by a price drop below the cost basis, triggering that final wave of capitulation with realized losses of around 20%.” – By @Darkfost_Coc

– CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 24, 2026

Meanwhile, Glassnode decided to join the misery party by reporting that the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has dipped below 1, a sure sign that we’ve entered a “full-blown excess loss-realization regime.” You know, just in case you hadn’t already figured that out from the cascading red candles and the sound of wallet owners sobbing.

James Check, another analyst who clearly enjoys the pain, pointed out that Bitcoin is now on its fifth consecutive month of red candles, an achievement that, in most other contexts, would be worthy of a trophy. He also observed that the 1-week realized volatility had surged above 150%, a level only typically seen during those delightful moments of total market collapse. How quaint.

And for those who find solace in bleak statistics, around $70 billion worth of Bitcoin has already changed hands in the $60,000 to $70,000 range this year, leaving a fresh batch of unlucky investors wondering what went wrong.

Bitcoin’s supply in loss has now reached a staggering 10 million coins, the fourth-highest ever, noted James Van Straten. Naturally, the circulating supply will hit 20 million BTC next week, and, to everyone’s surprise, half of it is now sitting in the “loss” category. Hooray!

“History suggests that’s enough capital destruction for a bear market bottom,” said Van Straten, who clearly has a sense of humor about this.

Bitcoin’s Tiny Rebound: The Calm Before the Storm

There was a brief, almost comical, rebound in early Asian trading on Wednesday, with BTC adding a modest $2,000 to nudge back to $66,000. But let’s not kid ourselves-this tiny upward twitch is far from a genuine recovery. The bearish sentiment is still thick in the air, like a fog of despair, and every small rise feels like a cruel tease from the market gods.

What’s more, this brief spike just formed another “lower high,” with the $60,000 mark still playing the part of an unwilling support for further lows. A true rollercoaster, isn’t it?

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2026-02-25 10:31