Bitcoin finished April with a strong 12% increase, its largest monthly gain in a year. While the price dipped slightly to $75,000 by month’s end, investors were debating whether this price increase signaled a lasting trend or was just a temporary surge.
CryptoQuant, a market research company, has shared its analysis of what caused the recent price increase and whether we might see a similar pattern with Bitcoin in May.
On-chain Metrics Point to Speculative Action
A recent CryptoQuant report shows that gains in Bitcoin’s price during April were mainly fueled by activity in the perpetual futures market, not by actual purchases. While demand for immediate Bitcoin buying decreased, the surge was likely driven by leveraged trading rather than new investment.
In my research, I’ve observed a pattern: when demand for futures contracts goes up while immediate, or ‘spot,’ demand goes down, any price increases we see during a declining market usually don’t last. This suggests there isn’t a solid, underlying reason for those prices to keep rising – the gains aren’t built on a strong foundation.
In April, demand for Bitcoin based on immediate purchases decreased, as shown by a drop in on-chain buying activity. However, demand for Bitcoin futures contracts grew, likely due to increased speculative trading.
According to CryptoQuant, the fact that prices went up while actual demand decreased is a strong sign that recent price increases are based on speculation, not genuine, long-term interest. They noted that demand remained low throughout April, even as prices rose, meaning there wasn’t real buying pressure driving the gains.
Is a Multi-Month Price Decline Incoming?
CryptoQuant analysts have noticed that current demand for Bitcoin closely mirrors what they saw at the beginning of the 2022 bear market. Historically, this pattern led to a prolonged price drop for BTC, suggesting a potential for significant losses. While past performance isn’t a guarantee of future results, this similarity in demand is typically a warning sign and suggests Bitcoin’s price may be vulnerable.
If interest in Bitcoin doesn’t pick up soon, any price increases towards $79,000 are unlikely to last. Without renewed demand, the price won’t be able to break out to higher levels.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index dropped from 50 to 40 in April, indicating a shift from a neutral to a negative outlook. This decrease suggests that the underlying health of the cryptocurrency network weakened after a price surge fueled by speculative trading in futures contracts.
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2026-05-03 19:16